Smoke on Cars
Auto Market Weekly Summary
Monday January 13, 2025
Key Highlights
- Job growth was strong and much better than expected in December, affirming that the labor market has stabilized.
- The new-vehicle seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) improved in December to the best level since April 2021.
- The used market was flat month over month but remained strong in year-over-year comparison; wholesale used prices declined modestly.
Employment Trends
Job growth was strong and much better than expected in December, affirming that the labor market has stabilized. Unemployment declined, but wage growth cooled modestly.
- Job growth was robust in December, with 256,000 jobs created, surpassing the expected 165,000.
- The private sector added 223,000 jobs, while the government sector added 33,000.
- Manufacturing shed 13,000 jobs, while services produced 231,000 new jobs.
- The education and healthcare sectors saw the largest gains in the private sector, with 80,000 jobs created.
- Employment at auto dealers remained unchanged, still down 5,600 jobs or 0.4% below the February 2020 level.
- The headline unemployment rate declined to 4.1% from 4.2%, and the labor force participation rate was steady at 62.5%.
New-Vehicle Sales and Prices
The new-vehicle seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) improved in December to 16.8 million, the best level since April 2021.
- New light-vehicle sales were up 2% year over year in December despite having one less selling day.
- By volume, new-vehicle sales were up 8.4% month over month.
- The average transaction price of a new vehicle in December increased 1.5% from November, with an initial estimate of $49,740.
- The average incentive spend from manufacturers increased 1.3% month over month to $3,958, up 46.1% year over year.
Used-Vehicle Market
The used market remained strong in December as well, but wholesale used prices declined modestly.
- Used retail sales volumes were flat in December compared to November but up 13% year over year.
- Certified pre-owned (CPO) sales increased 4% month over month but were down 5% year over year.
- Wholesale vehicle values declined 0.3% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, with the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) at 204.8, up 0.4% from a year ago. [Watch the Q4 MUVVI Call for additional data and analysis.]
Jonathan Smoke
Jonathan Smoke leads Cox Automotive’s economic and industry insights team, which tracks key metrics and trends impacting both the wholesale and retail markets for vehicles informed by the proprietary data from the company’s businesses and platforms. For 28 years, Smoke has focused on translating data and trends into relevant actionable insights for the industries that represent the biggest purchases that consumers make in their lifetimes: real estate and automotive. Smoke joined Cox Automotive in 2017.