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Smoke on Cars

Auto Market Weekly Summary

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Key Highlights

  • Residential construction trends were mixed in December as permits declined and starts increased, but the underlying data suggest growth is ahead for multifamily.
  • Existing home sales increased 2.2% in December, which was better than the 1.2% increase expected and marks the third month of increases. Inventory declined, but prices were stable.
  • The California wildfires are driving increases in jobless claims, which had fallen from peaks in the fall caused by the hurricanes.

Residential Construction Trends

Residential construction trends were mixed in December as permits declined and starts increased, but the underlying data suggest growth is ahead for multifamily.

  • The seasonally adjusted annualized rate of housing starts jumped 15.8% when a 3.0% gain was expected.
  • Permits declined 0.7% when a 2.2% decrease was expected.
  • Starts increased 61.5% in multifamily and increased 3.3% in single family.
  • Single-family permits increased by 1.6%, while multifamily declined by 5.0%.

Existing Home Sales

Existing home sales increased 2.2% in December, which was better than the 1.2% increase expected and marks the third month of increases. Inventory declined, but prices were stable.

  • The existing home sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) of 4.24 million was up 8.4% from a year ago.
  • Sales were up 8.4% year over year, with the South leading gains for the month at 3.2%. Sales were up in every region except the Midwest, which was down 1%.
  • The median sales price was steady at $404,400, which was up 6.0% year over year.
  • Inventory levels dropped 13.5% in December, creating the tightest supply since March, but were still 16.2% higher than the same month last year.

Jobless Claims

The California wildfires are driving increases in jobless claims, which had fallen from peaks in the fall caused by the hurricanes.

  • Seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims increased by 6,000 to 223,000 for the week ending Jan. 18.
  • Continuing claims increased by 46,000 to 1.90 million as of Jan. 11.
  • The broadest measure of continuing claims increased by 87,900 to 2.30 million in the latest data.

Consumer Sentiment

Measures of consumer sentiment showed conflicting trends in January.

Jonathan Smoke
Chief Economist

Jonathan Smoke leads Cox Automotive’s economic and industry insights team, which tracks key metrics and trends impacting both the wholesale and retail markets for vehicles informed by the proprietary data from the company’s businesses and platforms. For 28 years, Smoke has focused on translating data and trends into relevant actionable insights for the industries that represent the biggest purchases that consumers make in their lifetimes: real estate and automotive. Smoke joined Cox Automotive in 2017.

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