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Smoke on Cars Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke shares his insights on macroeconomic trends, business cycles, demand and the economic factors influencing the automotive industry today.
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Smoke On Cars
3 min read
The Fed is Playing the Waiting Game, and Car Buyers Are Likely to Do the Same 05/07/2025 The Fed left monetary policy unchanged today at the conclusion of their third scheduled meeting of 2025. No changes have been made so far this year. This meeting did not include updated forecasts or dot plots, leaving the financial markets with little new information. The market has been more optimistic about rate cuts in 2025 than the Fed’s position. The median expectation for rate cuts communicated… Read Article
Market Insights Smoke on Cars Commentary & Voices Economy & Trends
4 min read
Auto Market Weekly Summary 05/05/2025 Key Highlights: The first estimate of GDP for the first quarter showed a decline in the economy, but it was mainly an accounting technicality based on surging imports. Job growth remained strong in April and exceeded expectations, while the unemployment rate and wage growth remained steady year over year. The new-vehicle SAAR declined modestly in April but remained up substantially year over year. GDP and Spending… Read Article
Auto Market Weekly Summary Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends
5 min read
Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: April 29 04/29/2025 Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem. Download this week’s presentation… Read Article
Auto Market Report Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends
4 min read
Auto Market Weekly Summary 04/28/2025 Key Highlights: Total home sales declined in March and were down year over year; existing homes decreased, while new home sales increased. The labor market showed mixed trends in jobless claims, with some improvements despite recent disruptions. Consumer sentiment measures show declining confidence and concerns about inflation and buying conditions. Existing Home Sales Existing home sales saw a significant decline in March, reaching levels comparable to… Read Article
Auto Market Weekly Summary Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends
3 min read
Auto Market Weekly Summary 04/21/2025 Key Highlights: Retail sales in March experienced the strongest monthly growth in two years, with the auto sector outperforming the rest of the retail market. Sales of motor vehicles and parts jumped 5.3%, driven by consumers purchasing ahead of new tariffs on imports. The unemployment claims data do not point to significant job losses so far in April. Retail Sales Surge in March Retail sales saw… Read Article
Auto Market Weekly Summary Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends
5 min read
Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: April 15 04/15/2025 Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem. Download this week’s presentation… Read Article
Auto Market Report Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends
3 min read
Auto Market Weekly Summary 04/14/2025 Key Highlights The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell in March relative to February as year-over-year inflation declined to 2.4% and core inflation declined to 2.8% year over year. Auto loan performance improved in March as severe delinquencies and defaults declined. Consumers’ views of buying conditions for vehicles declined to the lowest level since September 2022 as views of prices deteriorated, but views of interest rates improved.… Read Article
Auto Market Weekly Summary Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends
3 min read
Auto Market Weekly Summary 04/07/2025 Key Highlights Employment at auto dealers increased by 3,800 jobs, leaving employment down 13,500 or 1.0% below the February 2020 level. New light-vehicle sales were up 10.7% year over year in March, driven by retail sales and urgency to get ahead of pending tariff-driven price hikes. The average transaction price of a new vehicle in March declined 0.4% from February, with an initial estimate of $47,448.… Read Article
Auto Market Weekly Summary Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends
5 min read
Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: April 1 04/01/2025 Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem. Download this week’s presentation… Read Article
Auto Market Report Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends
4 min read
Auto Market Weekly Summary 03/31/2025 Key Highlights The auto industry is facing imminent tariffs on all imports, signaling significant changes ahead. Fourth quarter GDP growth was revised higher to 2.4%, but inflation trends remain a concern. Consumer confidence and sentiment have declined, with vehicle purchase plans at their lowest in two years. We are ending March like we did February, with tariffs on autos just around the corner, but this time,… Read Article
Auto Market Weekly Summary Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends

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