The inflation trend is mixed. Depending on the metric and comparison period, it is possible to say inflation is stable, accelerating or decelerating. Using the Consumer Price Index, aggregate inflation is below the Fed’s target but accelerating as energy, food, health care, and transportation are getting more expensive. Core inflation, which ignores volatile food and energy … Continued
The new-vehicle market was down more than expected in October and consumer credit growth slowed as consumers were restrained in borrowing either by choice or by force due to credit tightening. Credit growth slows: Consumer credit growth is slowing despite the Fed having lowering rates and loosening monetary policy. This is a reflection of tighter … Continued
Economic growth slows: The economy grew at a 1.9% pace in the third quarter. That was stronger than expected but slower than last year or the first two quarters. Consumer spending again drove the economy, but consumer spending is also decelerating. Business investment fell 3.0% after declining 1% in the second quarter. Housing was a growth … Continued
The Fed officially cut the short-term rate policy by a quarter-point, citing slowing economic growth both globally and domestically. This was the third cut this year, so rate policy is back to the range we had in the spring of 2018 before the June 2018 increase. As in September, the decision was not unanimous, as two … Continued
Recent data point to continued weakness in manufacturing, especially in the third quarter. Globally, we are not seeing signs of improving economic activity as manufacturing languishes with ongoing trade uncertainty. Manufacturing weakness: In the U.S., the UAW strike against GM added to weakness in the transportation sector along with declines in the aircraft industry related … Continued
The week ended with positive movement on a possible end to the UAW strike against GM and an orderly Brexit. Brexit optimism was short-lived. By late Saturday Prime Minister Boris Johnson grudgingly asked the European Union for another delay, per the British Parliament’s vote. Brexit isn’t immediately impactful on the U.S. economy, but it will … Continued
The stock market snapped a three-week losing streak thanks to a bounce Friday related to the announcement of a new “skinny (trade) deal” between the U.S. and China that found common ground on a narrow set of terms and postponed an additional hike in U.S. tariffs set to happen this week. Inflation benign: The economic … Continued
The pace of job creation continues to be weaker than last year, but enough jobs are being created to push the unemployment rate lower. However, not all sectors are strong, as manufacturing is now shedding jobs, and manufacturing data suggest that losses will continue. The mix of job creation and losses may be one of the factors behind … Continued
Economic growth slowed in the second quarter and is likely to be much slower in the back half of the year compared with the first half of the year. Tame inflation: Inflation has been tame, mainly as a result of lower prices for food and energy, but now some of the consumer surplus provided by … Continued
The stock market failed to make it four straight weeks of gains as the UAW strike at GM, turmoil in the Middle East, floods in Texas, and global economic weakness collectively dampened moods. The Fed also made news every day, and, when the Fed has to take action, it’s not usually because things are looking … Continued
