Today’s rate cut was viewed by the market as a certainty. The Fed had ample opportunities to set different expectations, but only affirmed the market’s view at every turn. In terms of policy, what mattered more today was the amount of…
The economy is still growing, thanks primarily to the consumer and an expanding Federal deficit. The first estimate of real GDP growth in the second quarter was 2.1%, which was better than expected but indeed a slowdown from Q1 and…
Consumer spending is robust and likely drove much of the second-quarter economic growth as households were confident about the economy. However, economic indicators, such as new construction activity, cast doubt on the sustainability of this growth. Labor shortages, supply disruptions,…
Overall inflation remains very low, helped by lower energy prices. The monthly trend through June gives support for an easing of monetary policy. The financial markets expect the Fed to cut rates at the end of the month. The futures…
Manufacturing has been the weakest part of the economy this year as trade issues have resulted in declining orders. Despite that weakness, the job market continues to be solid, albeit with decelerating gains. June saw rebounding job growth from May’s…
The economy is slowing and consumer confidence is weakening but the consumer keeps spending, for now, though less on vehicles since retail auto sales are declining. Economy slowing: The economy gave us a head-fake of 3.1% growth in the first…
Automotive News Weekend Drive, June 29, 2019 — Automotive News Reporters Michael Martinez and Mike Wayland are joined by Jonathan Smoke, chief economist, Cox Automotive, on Weekend Drive to discuss the first half of the year and how the market…
The “bad news is good news” cycle continued last week as the stock market cheered the Fed acknowledging trade-related economic weakness and low inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Index ended the week up almost 700 points. Bond yields have tumbled…
The Fed left rates unchanged as expected, but their assessment of economic trends and inflation took a notable downward shift compared to their “patient” view just six weeks ago. As a result of changing data and mixed concerns, the committee…
The latest inflation data show that higher prices outside of housing are not materializing, and lower energy costs are keeping inflation very low. Weak inflation bolsters the view that the Fed is likely to cut rates as early as their…
