Despite tame inflation, Fed patience with raising interest rates, wage gains and other positive economic signs, consumers are increasingly nervous, not about today, but about the future. Consumer sentiment dips: The initial reading on Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan fell in March, and the April initial reading was also below forecast. Consumers are … Continued
The Hill, By Jonathan Smoke, April 9, 2019 — Mexico is arguably our most important trading partner for the automotive market, both for fully-assembled vehicles and, even more importantly, for parts to go into vehicles assembled in the U.S. Of new vehicles sold in the U.S. in 2018, 15 percent were assembled in Mexico. Japan is … Continued
Mexico is arguably the most important U.S. trading partner for the automotive market, both for fully-assembled vehicles and, even more importantly, for parts that go into vehicles assembled in the U.S. Of new vehicles sold in the U.S. in 2018, 53% were assembled in the U.S. However, 15% were assembled in Mexico. Japan is the … Continued
Fears of an economic slowdown eased a bit thanks to a strong job growth report and better-than-expected new vehicle sales. Job growth rebounds: Job creation rebounded in March from anemic growth in February, relieving fears of a more dramatic slowdown coming in consumer spending. Average monthly job creation so far in 2019 is 180,000 jobs, … Continued
Economic growth at the end of last year was much weaker than originally estimated. The economy decelerated to real GDP growth of 2.2%, setting up the first quarter to be much weaker as well. Mixed bag for confidence: Consumer confidence data are sending mixed signals. Confidence was down in March, but sentiment was up. Part … Continued
A replay of the Cox Automotive Q1 Auto Sales Call hosted by Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke is available below. Along with Smoke, Cox Automotive Executive Analyst Karl Brauer and Zo Rahim, manager of economics and industry insights for Cox Automotive, presented a comprehensive look at the auto market in Q1 2019, including their perspectives … Continued
Economic growth slowed dramatically at the end of 2018 and remained slower to start the year. The Fed has recognized slowing growth as well as heightened risks and is now unlikely to increase short term rates this year. Yield curve inverts: Clear signs of economic weakness in Asia and Europe have pushed long-term bond yields … Continued
After a slow start to the year, many leading indicators are pointing to a stronger economy this spring. Real wage growth is now stronger than we have seen in two-and-a-half years, thanks to higher wages combined with subdued inflation. Consumer spending rebound: Consumers retreated from spending at the end of last year because of political … Continued
Last fall the Cox Automotive Industry Insights team and I started warning about potential surprises lurking in tax refund season due to rushed changes to withholding tables made in the wake of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. In January, we published our view and the insights behind our concern. Our conclusion in aggregate was … Continued
Last week, data on housing, new vehicle sales and job creation reports came in weaker than anticipated though there were some mixed signals as well. Housing mixed signs: Housing has been weak, but higher permitting in January suggests at least slightly more new home activity this spring. Slower job growth, wage gains: Job creation slowed … Continued
