Auto Market Weekly Summary

Key Highlights:

• Total home sales declined in June, continuing a downward trend that began earlier in the year.
• Existing home sales fell more than expected, with regional performance mixed and inventory levels remaining tight.
• New home sales showed a slight monthly gain, though year-over-year comparisons were weaker and supply levels remain elevated.
• Jobless claims stayed high, reflecting slower hiring and more individuals remaining on unemployment longer.

Home Sales

This week was a light week for important economic data releases, with primarily June data on home sales, which unsurprisingly indicated little change in trend on a down market. With existing home sales decreasing and new home sales increasing only slightly in June, total home sales declined 2.3% for the month and were down 1.0% year-over-year (y/y) to the lowest level of activity since December 2023, when the average mortgage rate was also at its current level.

Existing Home Sales

• Existing home sales declined 2.7% in June, more than expected, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 3.93 million, unchanged from a year ago and the slowest pace in nine months.
• Regional performance varied: The West saw a 1.4% increase, while the Northeast experienced the steepest decline at 8%.
• Compared to a year ago, sales were down in the Northeast (-4.2%) and West (-4.1%) but up in the Midwest (2.2%) and South (1.7%).
• Inventory decreased 0.6% in June from what had been the highest level since May 2020.
• The months’ supply of homes for sale increased to 4.7 months, which was up from 4.0 months a year ago but is still considered tight.
• Median home prices rose 2.0% year over year to $435,300.
• Prices increased year over year in every region of the country, with the Northeast leading the gains at 4.2% and the South trailing at 0.3%.

New Home Sales

• New home sales rose 0.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000 and were down 6.6% year over year.
• Regionally, sales increased 6.3% in the Midwest and 5.1% in the South, but sales declined 27.6% in the Northeast and 8.4% in the West.
• Year over year, sales were up 9% in the Midwest but down in all other regions.
• The Northeast posted the steepest year-over-year decline at 34.4%.
• New home inventory increased 1.2% month over month and 8.5% year over year.
• The supply of new homes rose to 9.8 months in June, up from 9.7 months in May, which is considered an elevated level of supply.

Jobless Claims

Jobless claims remain elevated but below recent peaks. More people are remaining on unemployment as hiring has slowed, with uncertainty weighing on the economy.

• Seasonally adjusted initial claims fell by 4,000 to 217,000 for the week ending July 19, which was 4,900 fewer than the 2020 pre-pandemic level but 42,000 lower than the fall peak caused by the hurricanes.
• Non-seasonally adjusted claims dropped by 45,300 and were 29,400 lower than pre-pandemic levels.
• Continuing claims rose by 4,000 to 1.96 million as of July 12, 202,000 more than pre-pandemic but 9,000 lower than five weeks ago. That level of continuing claims was 202,000 more than it was before the pandemic, but 9,000 lower than it was five weeks ago.
• Hiring has slowed, leaving more job losers on unemployment benefits for a longer time.
• The broadest measure of continuing claims increased by 113,900 to 2.04 million, the highest since March. That total measure, which lags the traditional number and is not seasonally adjusted, is up 197,500 over the last four weeks to the highest level since March but is 63,400 lower than the pre-pandemic level.

Jonathan Smoke

Chief Economist

Jonathan Smoke leads Cox Automotive’s economic and industry insights team, which tracks key metrics and trends impacting both the wholesale and retail markets for vehicles informed by the proprietary data from the company’s businesses and platforms. For 28 years, Smoke has focused on translating data and trends into relevant actionable insights for the industries that represent the biggest purchases that consumers make in their lifetimes: real estate and automotive. Smoke joined Cox Automotive in 2017.