Key Highlights
  • Turnover data point to stability even with weak hiring
  • Consumer confidence fell in September
  • Pending home sales Improved
  • New-vehicle sales were strong

This summary does not include the usual employment report due to the Federal government shutdown over the budget impasse. However, pending home and vehicle sales data for September were released, along with a job openings and turnover report showing mixed results and another decrease in consumer confidence.

JOB OPENINGS AND TURNOVERS: Data for August reflected weak hiring conditions but overall stability in employment.

  • Job openings increased 0.3% in August and were down 5.5% year over year.
  • Hires declined 2.2% and were down 2.0% year over year, while separations declined 2.1% and were down 9.7% year over year.
  • Layoffs declined 3.5% and were down 4.6% year over year. Layoffs per employee remained very low at 1.1%.

CONSUMER SENTIMENT: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased 3.7% in September and was worse than expected. Consumer confidence was down 5.0% year over year.

  • Consumers’ views of the present and of the future both declined, but the present situation declined the most.
  • Plans to purchase a vehicle in the next six months decreased and was lower year over year, but plans to purchase a home improved to the best level in 4 months and was higher year over year.
  • Other measures of consumer sentiment also declined in September.

PENDING HOME SALES increased 4% in August, and that increase was much better than the 0.4% increase that had been expected.

  • Mortgage rates moved to the lowest levels of the year in August and drove at least some of this improvement.
  • The monthly trend varied by region, with the Northeast down 1.1% for the month, but every other region up, with the Midwest up the most at 8.7%.
  • The trend year over year was positive for every region, with the Midwest up the most at 6.7% but the West up only 0.2%.

NEW LIGHT-VEHICLE SALES increased 6.7% year over year in September, with one more selling day than September 2024.

  • By volume, new-vehicle sales decreased 14.2% month over month, with three fewer selling days than August.
  • The September seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) decreased 0.5% to 16.4 million from August’s upwardly revised 16.5 million pace and was up 3.8% from last year’s 15.8 million pace.
  • Combined sales into large rental, commercial, and government fleets were up 11.6% year over year.
  • Sales into large rental fleets were up 22.2% year over year, while sales into commercial fleets were down 0.5%, but sales into government fleets were up 15.6%.
  • Including an estimate for fleet deliveries into dealer and manufacturer channels, the remaining retail sales were estimated to be up 6.8% from last year, leading to an estimated retail SAAR of 13.4 million, which was little changed from last year but down from August’s 13.7 million pace.
  • The fleet share was 15.5%, which was unchanged from last year.

BOTTOM LINE: These sales estimates carry more revision risk than usual, but the preliminary data indicate that vehicle demand stayed very strong in September, capping a quarter that ranks as the second-best in the past four years. Despite slower hiring, businesses are maintaining employment at normal levels, and housing indicators are turning positive. Pending home sales improved, and with mortgage rates declining further in September, there’s room for continued growth in existing home sales. While the Bureau of Economic Analysis has not reported official September new light vehicle sales due to the shutdown, Wards data provides a reliable proxy for what we would expect in that report. Taken together, these trends underscore resilient consumer demand and a market that continues to outperform expectations.