Major economic indicators were negative to close out 2022. Consumer spending growth slowed substantially in November, with spending on motor vehicles and parts down in November after an October increase. Personal income growth also slowed. The massive rise in mortgage rates has reduced demand, particularly causing a decline in the construction of single-family homes. On … Continued
In today’s market, the deterioration of consumer credit, and auto loan performance, in particular, is a worrying sign for industry watchers. In the context of high inflation and with the Fed intent on slowing the economy and weakening the labor market, there are indeed clear signs of stress in the system. Continued jobless claims are … Continued
The video below is part of a biweekly Auto Market Report series focusing on data and insights that provide a holistic view of the auto industry. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. Download this week’s presentation.
Inflation declined in November, according to the Consumer Price Index, but prices remain high. Still worried about inflation, the Fed remains hawkish about pushing rates higher early in 2023 after increasing rates by 50 basis points last week following four straight 75-BPs increases. Auto loan performance deteriorated further in November. The default rate in November … Continued
As expected, the Fed raised the target for the Federal Funds Rate by half a percentage point today, which was a smaller increase than the four straight jumbo increases that preceded the latest move. The Fed’s biggest news was that the terminal rate, meaning the ultimate peak in rates for this tightening cycle, will be … Continued
Consumer credit growth accelerated in October as revolving credit increased but non-revolving credit declined. Auto loan credit access tightened sharply in November across all channels and across all lender types as every factor moved against consumers. Used-vehicle sales likely declined in November, and wholesale used-vehicle prices declined again. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index is … Continued
Financial markets have taken another ride on the Wishful Thinking About Fed Policy roller coaster over the last week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell sent the invitation to come on board with a speech he gave last Wednesday, the final day of November, at the Brookings Institute. The speech gave markets what they wanted to hear. … Continued
The video below is part of a biweekly Auto Market Report series focusing on data and insights that provide a holistic view of the auto industry. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. Download this week’s presentation.
Job growth in November did not slow as much as expected or as desired by the Fed. The unemployment rate was steady at 3.7%, and wage growth accelerated. Jobless claims increased throughout November. Continuing claims have risen from historic lows but are at the highest levels in 38 weeks. Consumer spending growth accelerated in November … Continued
The release of new data was limited last week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. What news there was represented a mixed bag. New home sales were stronger than expected. Jobless claims increased. Consumer sentiment showed mixed views. The Fed released not surprising notes from its November meeting. New Home Sales and Inventory Deliver Surprising Increases … Continued
