Retail sales growth accelerated in October and was stronger than expected. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales were up slightly from a year ago. Residential construction slowed again in October, with single-family activity driving much of the decline. Existing home sales…

Financial markets shifted to the positive last week, with weaker-than-expected inflation data pointing to an eventual end to rate increases. However, the Fed will likely raise rates by 50 basis points (BPs) in December as planned unless something more dramatic…

The October employment report saw a modest slowing in job creation, along with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a modest slowing in wage growth. Still, the labor market remains strong and is a key reason why the…

As expected, the Fed raised the target for the Federal Funds Rate by three-quarters of a percentage point today, which was the fourth straight jumbo increase this year. The biggest news from the Fed’s move was the indication that future…

Last week featured mixed news with enough strength in the economy and consumer spending to result in more rate increases and communication of more increases to come from the Fed this week. Check back on Smoke on Cars for additional…

Residential construction trends in September were mixed, but single-family housing activity is clearly declining. Existing home sales fell in September for the eighth straight month. More declines can be expected as demand wanes and supply remains very limited, unlike the…

Financial markets had a roller coaster ride last week, ending the week lower due to stronger-than-expected inflation data and consumer sentiment data indicating rising inflation expectations. Both suggest the Fed will raise rates as much as planned in November and…

Last week, we reviewed our sales forecasts for the third quarter of 2022 and offered our perspective on the factors that continue to present a bumpy road for the auto industry. A replay of that presentation is posted in the Cox…

September ended with negative mojo. Damage from Hurricane Ian is just now being assessed in Florida and South Carolina. Economic indicators were mixed. The final estimates for second-quarter economic growth as measured by GDP left the 0.6% decline unchanged, but…

The Fed raised the target for the Federal Funds Rate by three-quarters of a percentage point today, making another aggressive move to, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggests, induce “pain in the economy” as the cost of reducing inflation. The…