Retail sales growth accelerated in October and was stronger than expected. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales were up slightly from a year ago. Residential construction slowed again in October, with single-family activity driving much of the decline. Existing home sales declined in October for the ninth straight month. Initial jobless claims declined in the latest … Continued

Financial markets shifted to the positive last week, with weaker-than-expected inflation data pointing to an eventual end to rate increases. However, the Fed will likely raise rates by 50 basis points (BPs) in December as planned unless something more dramatic changes between now and December 14. We get November employment and Consumer Price Index (CPI) … Continued

The October employment report saw a modest slowing in job creation, along with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a modest slowing in wage growth. Still, the labor market remains strong and is a key reason why the Fed believes it is too soon to pause on rate increases. The Fed increased the … Continued

As expected, the Fed raised the target for the Federal Funds Rate by three-quarters of a percentage point today, which was the fourth straight jumbo increase this year. The biggest news from the Fed’s move was the indication that future increases may be smaller and slower to come. The Fed has now moved the target … Continued

Last week featured mixed news with enough strength in the economy and consumer spending to result in more rate increases and communication of more increases to come from the Fed this week. Check back on Smoke on Cars for additional commentary after the announcement on Wednesday, November 2. The third quarter saw a strong rebound … Continued

Residential construction trends in September were mixed, but single-family housing activity is clearly declining. Existing home sales fell in September for the eighth straight month. More declines can be expected as demand wanes and supply remains very limited, unlike the 2008 downturn. Initial jobless claims declined in the latest week, and jobless claims overall remain … Continued

Financial markets had a roller coaster ride last week, ending the week lower due to stronger-than-expected inflation data and consumer sentiment data indicating rising inflation expectations. Both suggest the Fed will raise rates as much as planned in November and December and possibly more. The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report indicated headline inflation … Continued

Last week, we reviewed our sales forecasts for the third quarter of 2022 and offered our perspective on the factors that continue to present a bumpy road for the auto industry. A replay of that presentation is posted in the Cox Automotive Newsroom. This week, we are beginning to see more clearly the September data and, … Continued

September ended with negative mojo. Damage from Hurricane Ian is just now being assessed in Florida and South Carolina. Economic indicators were mixed. The final estimates for second-quarter economic growth as measured by GDP left the 0.6% decline unchanged, but consumer spending was revised up and was stronger than expected as inflation accelerated in the … Continued

The Fed raised the target for the Federal Funds Rate by three-quarters of a percentage point today, making another aggressive move to, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggests, induce “pain in the economy” as the cost of reducing inflation. The biggest news was not today’s increase, but the plans for where rates go from here. … Continued