Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem.

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Report Summary – Oct. 14, 2025

Key Highlights

  • Consumer spending momentum slowed in September and turned negative in early October, signaling a shift in household behavior.
  • Retail auto sales and low-interest financing both declined, even as the Fed began cutting rates, while used vehicle prices weakened at wholesale.
  • Dealer leads and service activity showed mixed trends, with some indicators up year over year but most metrics down compared to September.

Consumer Spending Strong in Summer But Declined in Early October

Total consumer spending accelerated year over year in July and August, but growth decelerated in September and turned negative in early October.

  • Weekly spending growth fell below zero, reflecting softer demand as households became more cautious heading into Q4.

Continuing Claims Down to 1.93 Million Nationally in Mid-September

Labor market resilience continues, with continuing unemployment claims dropping to 1.93 million nationally.

  • This marks one of the lowest levels in recent months, supporting overall economic stability.

Consumer Sentiment Down Again in October So Far

The Index of Consumer Sentiment declined 3.3% in September and is down 1.7% so far in October.

  • Higher gas prices and economic uncertainty are weighing on confidence.
  • Sentiment trends often foreshadow shifts in big-ticket purchases like vehicles.

Retail Sales Increased in Early October

New and used auto sales trended down for several weeks but moved higher in the first week of October.

  • Seasonal patterns and affordability pressures remain key drivers of this volatility.

Low APR Financing is Declining in October

Low-interest rate offerings have fallen again in October after moving lower in September.

  • Share of 0% APR loans remains near historic lows, limiting affordability gains for buyers.

Auto Loan Rates Increased in September as the Fed Cut Rate Policy

Average used auto loan rates declined slightly to 14.17% in October, while new loan rates increased to 9.73%.

  • Rate cuts have yet to translate into lower borrowing costs for consumers.

New and Used Supply Declined Slightly in Early October

New and used vehicle days’ supply both declined in the first week of October after rising in September.

  • Inventory levels remain a key factor influencing pricing and sales trends.

Used Price Trends For Retail Are Stronger Than Wholesale

The average price for retail Model Year 2022 vehicles declined 0.1% last week, while wholesale prices fell another 0.8%.

  • Retail prices have shown more resilience than wholesale, signaling margin compression for dealers.

Cox Automotive Leading Indicators

  • Dealer leads are up year over year so far in October on Autotrader, but down on Kelley Blue Book. Leads are down for the month compared to September on both sites.
  • Unique leads per dealer are down year over year so far in October for new and used vehicles on Dealer.com-hosted websites. New and used leads are down for the month compared to September.
  • Unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack were up 5% year over year last week, but the trend is down week over week in aggregate, with declining trends in new and used loan applications.
  • Service trends on Xtime relative to last year declined in the week ending Oct. 4, as completed appointments were down 3% year over year.