Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: July 8

Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem.

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Report Summary – July 8, 2025

Key Highlights

• Consumer sentiment dipped in June but is showing signs of recovery in early July, reflecting cautious optimism.
• Used vehicle sales and service activity are gaining momentum, while new vehicle sales remain steady.
• Loan rates are easing from historic highs, and low-interest financing is making a comeback.

Consumer Behavior

After a surge in April and a cooldown in May, consumer spending has stabilized in June, signaling a more balanced economic environment.

• Year-over-year growth in spending accelerated in April, then moderated in May.
• June data shows a leveling off, suggesting consumers are adjusting to inflation and interest rate dynamics.
• The Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 7.1% in May, fell 3.6% in June, but is up 0.7% so far in July—indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook.

Retail Sales

Retail sales trends remain steady overall, with used vehicle sales showing a slight uptick in early July.

• New-vehicle sales have held firm, supported by improved inventory and incentives.
• Used-vehicle sales moved higher in the latest week, reflecting growing consumer interest and affordability.
• Dealer leads are up year over year on Autotrader but down on Kelley Blue Book, showing platform-specific engagement shifts.

Financing

Auto loan rates are gradually declining from 25-year highs, and low APR financing is becoming more prevalent.

• The average used vehicle loan rate dropped to 14.08%, while new vehicle rates declined to 9.26%.
• Low-interest rate loan offerings surged in early July as new vehicle sales cooled.
• Unique credit applications per dealer rose 7% year over year last week, with gains in new loans offsetting declines in used.

Inventory and Pricing

Inventory levels and pricing trends suggest a market finding equilibrium.

• New-vehicle supply has increased over the past month, while used supply remains steady.
• Retail prices for 2022 model year vehicles declined 0.2%, and wholesale prices fell 0.3%—a normal seasonal pattern.
• Dealer.com data shows new leads are up month over month, while used leads are slightly down.

Cox Automotive Leading Indicators

Cox Automotive leading indicators show are mixed, with a cautiously optimistic tilt.

• Dealer leads are up year over year so far in July on Autotrader but are down on Kelley Blue Book, and leads are up for the month so far compared to June on Autotrader but down on Kelley Blue Book.
• Unique leads per dealer are down year over year so far in July for both new and used vehicles on websites hosted by Dealer.com, but new leads are up for the month compared to June while used leads are down.
• Unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack were up 7% year over year last week, with the trend steady week over week in aggregate, with improvement in new loans and decline in used loans.
• Service trends on Xtime relative to last year improved in the week ending June 28, as completed appointments were up 34% year over year. The comp was during the CDK outage last year.