Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: August 19

Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem.

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Report Summary – August 19, 2025

Key Highlights

• Consumer spending momentum held up into August, supporting both new- and used-vehicle retail activity as summer sales trends improved.
• Financing conditions are easing at the margins: low-APR offers are at their highest share since May 2022, while average used-auto rates have edged down to 13.91% so far in August.
• Supply tightened for both new and used vehicles in recent weeks, and used pricing shows only marginal divergence between retail and wholesale benchmarks.

Consumer demand holds up

Consumer spending stabilized in June and accelerated in July, keeping August demand on solid footing.

• High-frequency card data show year-over-year spending growth cooled in May, steadied in June and picked up again in July.
• The report frames August as benefiting from that momentum, with weekly measures indicating growth remains positive.

Labor signals remain supportive

Continuing jobless claims eased to 1.95 million nationally, pointing to an employment market that still underpins auto purchases.

• The downshift in claims reduces risk of a sudden demand break, even as consumers stay price sensitive.

Consumer sentiment mixed

After a 7.1% jump in May and a 3.6% decline in June, sentiment ticked up 1.3% in July, then softened slightly into August.

• Sentiment in early August is “down slightly,” and the report tracks it alongside gas prices, which historically influence car-shopping behavior.

Retail sales expand for new and used

New- and used-vehicle retail sales posted strong gains in recent weeks, extending a summer upswing.

• The trajectory shows improvement across both segments compared with earlier in the year, according to vAuto data.

Low-APR financing steps up

Low-interest-rate offers are elevated in August, reaching their highest share since May 2022.

• The share of loans below 3% and at 0% is holding high, suggesting OEMs are leaning on rate subvention to sustain showroom traffic.

Rates: easing at the edges

Average used-auto APR has fallen to 13.91% so far in August, while the new-vehicle average has edged up to 9.23%.

• Against a backdrop of lower Treasury yields and a flat-to-lower policy-rate path, auto APRs are slowly receding from 25-year highs.

Inventory trends: tighter for both sides of the market

New-vehicle days’ supply is lower over the last month and flat week over week, while used days’ supply is also trending down.

• Leaner lots can support pricing power for desirable models even as incentives rise.

Prices: only marginal divergence

Retail prices for 3-year-old vehicles dipped 0.2% last week while wholesale benchmarks were flat, a narrow split that signals stability.

• The report describes only “marginal” divergence in recent weeks between retail and wholesale indices for 3-year-old models.

Cox Automotive Leading Indicators

Cox Automotive Leading Indicators are mixed.

• Dealer leads are up year over year in August on Autotrader but are down on Kelley Blue Book, but leads are up for the month compared to July on both sites.
• Unique leads per dealer are up year over year so far in August for used vehicles on websites hosted by Dealer.com, and new leads are unchanged year over year, while used leads are unchanged for the month compared to July, but new leads are down slightly.
• Unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack were up 6% year over year last week, with the trend down w/w in aggregate, with a declining trend in used loan applications and a stable but weak trend in new loan applications.
• Service trends on Xtime relative to last year improved in the week ending Aug. 9, as completed appointments were unchanged year over year.