Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: Sept. 17

Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem.

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Report Summary – Sept. 17, 2024

The auto industry is experiencing a dynamic period marked by fluctuating consumer spending, stabilizing vehicle supply, and evolving financing trends. Despite some volatility, retail vehicle sales are holding steady, and consumer sentiment is showing signs of improvement.

Consumer Spending and Sentiment

Consumer spending growth has slowed and remains volatile.

• Spending trends turned negative in the second half of June.
• Year-over-year changes in total spending have been inconsistent.
• The Index of Consumer Sentiment increased by 0.3% in August and is up 1.0% so far in September.

Employment and Claims

Continuing claims are at 1.85 million nationally.

• Employment levels are at 103.8% of February 2020 levels.
• The percentage of continuing claims relative to February 2020 jobs is 87.6%.

Retail Vehicle Sales

Retail vehicle sales are holding higher.

• Sales trends for both new and used vehicles are normalizing.
• New and used retail sales have risen over the latest week.

Financing Trends

Low APR financing rates have declined.

• The mix of rates below 3% has decreased to 10.6% this month.
• 0% APR offers are lower compared to August.

Auto Loan Rates

Average auto loan rates have remained relatively unchanged in September.

• The average used auto loan rate is 13.91%.
• The average new auto loan rate is 9.61%.

Vehicle Supply

Vehicle supply has started to stabilize over the last month.

• New vehicle supply has declined but remains higher than recent years.
• Used vehicle supply is also falling and holding lower against recent years.

Price Trends

Used-vehicle price trends show divergence.

• The average retail price for model year 2021 vehicles increased by 0.3%.
• Wholesale prices for the same model year declined by 0.4%.

Leading Indicators

Leads and service trends are showing mixed results.

• Leads: Leads on Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book are down year-over-year and month-over-month.
• Dealer Metrics: Unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack were up 4% year-over-year last week.
• Service Trends: Service trends on Xtime declined, with completed appointments down 2% year-over-year.