Highlights First Estimate of Q1 GDP Growth Slowed More Than Expected The first estimate of Q1 real GDP performance showed a bigger deceleration in growth than expected, falling to an annualized rate of 1.6% from 3.4% in the fourth quarter. Personal consumption decelerated to growth of 2.5%, a decline from 3.3% in Q4. Spending on … Continued

Highlights The initial retail sales report for March showed a stronger-than-expected acceleration in consumer spending. The 0.7% increase was well above the expected 0.4% growth, and February’s sales increase was revised higher. Retail sales were up 4.0% year over year on a nominal basis in the initial March reading, and was up from an upwardly … Continued

Highlights: Headline Inflation Hits Highest Level Since September Headline inflation continues to run hotter than expected. In March, inflation grew at the same pace as February, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The headline aggregate measure increased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis and marked three months of higher-than-expected increases. The core CPI, which … Continued

Job growth in March accelerated and was stronger than expected. The three-month average for job creation is at the highest level in 11 months, while the unemployment rate declined. Wage growth accelerated modestly in March. The labor market remains strong. New-vehicle sales slowed in March despite growth in discounting and incentives. Used-vehicle sales improved in … Continued

The fourth-quarter real GDP was revised upwards to a 3.4% annualized gain, an increase from the 3.2% second estimate. Personal consumption was revised up to 3.3% from 3.0%. In February, income growth decelerated to a 0.3% gain, a decrease from 1.0% in January, which was driven by large increases in Social Security and Medicare payments. … Continued

New construction rebounded in February following weather disruptions in January. Existing home sales also jumped in February but remain down from a year ago. Existing home supply remains very tight but is up slightly from last year. Jobless claims remain limited and reflect no significant stress on the labor market. The Federal Reserve left interest … Continued

The Fed left interest rates and overall monetary policy unchanged today. We have now had five straight meetings with no change in rate policy. The Fed is effectively on cruise control, leaving rate policy restrictive and continuing to sell off assets on the balance sheet until “…inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.” Their rate … Continued