COVID-19 cases are increasing again as the BA.2 omicron variant is spreading in the U.S., but cases remain relatively low. Data on consumer sentiment is mixed so far in April, as the University of Michigan index improved in the initial April reading, but the daily index from Morning Consult is down for the month as … Continued

New-vehicle sales in March were up from February but down from a year ago. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) declined to 13.3 million from 14.1 million in February, as tight supply, record low incentives, and worsening production challenges held back the usual seasonal gain. Manufacturers continue to prioritize retail over fleet, as sales into … Continued

The March employment report showed a deceleration in job creation, but the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level for the pandemic. Labor force participation grew again to the highest level for the pandemic. Consistent with a strong labor market, continuing claims have fallen and are now at a 52-year low. Wage growth remains strong. … Continued

Last week was a light week for new economic data. This week delivers a veritable buffet of updated data covering personal income, spending, and inflation data for February, and employment, consumer confidence, and new-vehicle sales data for March. The housing market saw declining momentum in February, as surging mortgage rates are having an impact on … Continued

COVID-19 cases are now down 96% from the peak in mid-January, but the war in Ukraine and accelerating inflation have weighed on consumer sentiment in March. Still, the consumer kept spending at retailers in February, but inflation is what drove spending higher for the month. The job market continues to be one of the strongest … Continued

The Fed followed through with its widely telegraphed plan to start raising the target rate for the Federal Funds Rate. The target was increased by a quarter of a point, as expected, but the Fed indicated that six more quarter-point rate increases will likely follow before year-end, and that was more than expected. Rate projections … Continued

COVID-19 cases continue to fall and are back to July levels. Even with cases down, consumer sentiment, according to the University of Michigan, declined again in the initial March reading as consumers are impacted by rising gas prices and unsettled by the conflict in Ukraine. Inflation picked up again in February to record the highest … Continued

The February employment report was stronger than expected as job creation accelerated to 678,000 jobs compared to 481,000 created in January, and prior months were revised up. Labor force participation grew to the highest level for the pandemic, and the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level for the pandemic. Jobless claims are falling, and … Continued

Economic growth recovered in the fourth quarter, as real GDP growth accelerated to 7%, which was the strongest reading for the year, following the disruption from the delta wave of COVID-19 in the third quarter last year. This year started slower with the omicron wave, but activity is now recovering again as COVID cases are … Continued

COVID-19 cases driven by the omicron variant surged to record levels in January but have been declining rapidly for more than four weeks. They are now down 85% from the peak. COVID, inflation, the weather and stock market volatility have weighed on consumer sentiment so far in 2022, but none of that kept consumers from … Continued