COVID cases increased again as Omicron subvariants push case numbers up to levels last seen in mid-February. Measures of consumer sentiment have shown declines so far in May, as inflation and stock market declines weigh on consumer attitudes. Inflation decelerated slightly in April, but rent and services saw gains. Consumer credit grew at an accelerated … Continued

The April employment report showed stable job growth at 428,000 new jobs, and the unemployment rate was also unchanged at 3.6%. Labor force participation declined from what had been the highest level for the pandemic in March. Growth in average hourly earnings slowed. Consistent with a strong labor market, continuing claims keep falling and are … Continued

The Fed delivered on expectations today by raising the target rate for the Federal Funds Rate by half of a percentage point and announcing the plan to start reducing its balance sheet starting on June 1. The increase in the target rate was the largest in 22 years. The policy decision by the Fed Open … Continued

Real GDP declined in the first quarter but mainly because of net exports and declining inventories. Consumer spending remained robust. Consumer spending in March, in fact, accelerated and even showed growth on an inflation-adjusted basis over February and last year. Incomes are also growing at a healthy pace supported by every factor but unemployment benefits. … Continued

The job market continues to be one of the strongest parts of the economy as continuing jobless claims keep falling and are far lower than they were before the pandemic began. New construction continues to be strong, with growth in multi-family, which is sorely needed, driving permits and starts higher in March. Existing home sales … Continued

COVID-19 cases are increasing again as the BA.2 omicron variant is spreading in the U.S., but cases remain relatively low. Data on consumer sentiment is mixed so far in April, as the University of Michigan index improved in the initial April reading, but the daily index from Morning Consult is down for the month as … Continued

New-vehicle sales in March were up from February but down from a year ago. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) declined to 13.3 million from 14.1 million in February, as tight supply, record low incentives, and worsening production challenges held back the usual seasonal gain. Manufacturers continue to prioritize retail over fleet, as sales into … Continued

The March employment report showed a deceleration in job creation, but the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level for the pandemic. Labor force participation grew again to the highest level for the pandemic. Consistent with a strong labor market, continuing claims have fallen and are now at a 52-year low. Wage growth remains strong. … Continued

Last week was a light week for new economic data. This week delivers a veritable buffet of updated data covering personal income, spending, and inflation data for February, and employment, consumer confidence, and new-vehicle sales data for March. The housing market saw declining momentum in February, as surging mortgage rates are having an impact on … Continued

COVID-19 cases are now down 96% from the peak in mid-January, but the war in Ukraine and accelerating inflation have weighed on consumer sentiment in March. Still, the consumer kept spending at retailers in February, but inflation is what drove spending higher for the month. The job market continues to be one of the strongest … Continued