The tightening of U.S. monetary policy is accelerating after the Fed’s eighth and final meeting in 2021. As expected, the Fed announced that tapering would accelerate and bond buying would end by March. This sets the stage for rate increases to begin soon thereafter as the economic priorities shift from a focus on job recovery … Continued

The trend in new daily COVID-19 cases kept rising last week as the seven-day average of daily cases was up and case levels are back to early October numbers. The most current view of consumer sentiment moved slightly higher for the week, and the initial reading for December from the University of Michigan registered an … Continued

While the number of COVID-19 daily new cases is increasing, the economy grew, consumers spent money, home sales rose, and jobless claims dropped to pre-pandemic levels. GDP revised up: The second estimate of third-quarter real GDP resulted in an upward revision to growth of 2.1% annualized from the first estimate of 2.0%. Personal consumption was … Continued

The trend in new daily COVID-19 cases accelerated higher last week, and consumer sentiment lost ground. Retail sales were much stronger than expected in October as consumers keep spending despite higher prices. Inflation did play a role in the spending, but even controlling for price increases, retail sales exceeded expectations. New construction trends were mixed … Continued

Inflation rose in October to the highest year-over-year level since October 1990. While the consumer credit expansion pace accelerated in September, auto loan originations slowed modestly in the third quarter from the record pace of originations in the second quarter. Auto loan performance deteriorated again in October and is starting to normalize from historically low … Continued

October saw an acceleration of job gains as the labor market is improving following the peak of the Delta variant wave and the end of the pandemic unemployment assistance in September. New-vehicle sales showed gains over September, which posted the lowest seasonal pace of sales. The used-vehicle retail market was flat and still slower than … Continued

U.S. monetary policy is now entering a tightening phase as the Fed issued their official statement following their seventh meeting of 2021. As expected, the Fed announced that tapering would begin this month. We know now that tapering will proceed, but the process is expected to precede rate increases. At this point, rate increases are … Continued

The declining trend in new daily COVID-19 cases continued last week but the rate of decline slowed, and consumer sentiment is still declining. The Delta variant wave peaked in September and caused a slowing in the pace of real growth in the economy. Third-quarter real GDP grew only 2% following a 6.7% increase in the … Continued

Job creation numbers for September were disappointing, though new jobless claims fell as did the unemployment rate – to a pandemic low – while wages grew. New-vehicle sales nosedived on low inventories, delivering the lowest seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in 16 months. The retail used vehicle market also cooled but still outperformed the new-vehicle … Continued

The declining trend in new daily COVID-19 cases continued last week, but consumer confidence still saw declines. Consumer spending growth accelerated in August even as income growth slowed. Inflation in August, according to the Fed’s preferred measure, was at the highest level in 30 years. The new-vehicle market lost more momentum in September. Pending home … Continued