The downward trend in new daily COVID-19 cases continues. Improving conditions are leading to rollbacks of restrictions, and economic activity and employment should improve as a result. For now, traditional jobless claims are seeing gradual declines, but pandemic assistance claims are growing, and 20.4 million people remain on some form of benefits. Joblessness remains high: … Continued

The downward trend in new daily COVID-19 cases continues. Improving conditions are leading to rollbacks of restrictions. Economic activity and employment should improve as a result. Job gains small: January only saw meager gains in jobs, but the declining trend in jobless claims affirm that January likely represented the transition from the worst of the … Continued

The downward trend in new daily COVID-19 cases continues, but new variants are raising concerns. The economy grew in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending slowed, savings grew, and consumer confidence improved. Economy grows: The first estimate of fourth quarter 2020 real GDP growth came in at 4.0% (annualized), less than the 4.2% expected. Based on … Continued

Little new information emerged from the Fed today as they issued their official statement following their first meeting of 2021. The biggest change in the official statement was acknowledging that “…  the pace of the recovery in economic activity and employment has moderated in recent months.” The Fed is clearly staying on course with its … Continued

The downward trend in new daily COVID-19 cases continues. Hospitalizations and deaths are on the decline as well. The pandemic risk remains at the highest level for much of the country, but conditions should improve as the month ends. On the economic side, joblessness remains high but is not continuing to rise, consumer sentiment rose … Continued

We are now seeing a downward trend in new daily COVID-19 cases. The pandemic risk remains at the highest level for much of the country, but conditions should improve in coming weeks. The trailing data on jobless claims is tracking the rising COVID-19 case trend. Job losses for the week ending Jan. 9 were the … Continued

Last week saw continued growth in COVID-19 cases. We are likely to hit new records and an eventual peak in daily cases in the next seven to 10 days. The rise in COVID-19 cases in December resulted in job losses for the month, mostly in the service sector. More job losses are expected until we … Continued

The last two weeks of December provided several key data points for November that revealed declining momentum in the economy. The holiday weeks also provided updated readings on consumer sentiment and confidence that did not indicate improving trends in the final month of the year. However, the weekly jobless claims data provided some encouragement, albeit … Continued

Last week, we saw continued growth in COVID-19 cases but at a slowing pace. Record cases and new restrictions are causing a continued uptick in new jobless claims. Consumer sentiment improved modestly last week, building upon improvement that came as vaccine news seems to be helping lift consumer spirits. Retail sales declined in November with … Continued

Little new information emerged from the Fed today as they issued their official statement following their December and final meeting of the year. In fact, the only change in the official statement was more specific details about their program of buying Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. There was no change in their language describing the … Continued