The peak in daily new COVID-19 cases was three weeks ago, and case growth appears to be on a declining trend for the U.S. overall, but some markets are still seeing growth. Testing is ramping up but remains inadequate. Joblessness grows: The damage to the economy can be seen in a record decline in retail … Continued

The peak in daily new COVID-19 cases was over a week ago, so case growth is on a declining but inconsistent trend. Meantime, the economic fallout is evident in negative growth and record unemployment. Progress in slowing the virus is inconsistent as individual markets each have their own unique pandemic curves. Testing is ramping up … Continued

The Fed made no surprises today when they left rate policy — already at the zero lower bound — unchanged. The Fed’s statement and press conference affirmed the gravity of the economic situation created by the COVID-19 pandemic and in essence pledged to continue to do whatever it takes to get the U.S. economy through … Continued

COVID-19 cases keep growing in the U.S., but the pace of increase is slowing as the peak in new cases occurred a week ago. Stay-at-home orders are working. Record jobless claims: The related closures will lead to a substantial economic contraction in March and the second quarter. The damage to the economy is most clearly … Continued

COVID-19 cases keep growing in the U.S., but the pace of increase slowed down last week even while the rate of testing increased. Stay-at-home orders are working. The related closures will lead to a substantial economic contraction in March and the second quarter. Jobless claims rise: The damage to the economy is most clearly seen … Continued

The auto industry is anxiously awaiting reports of March vehicle sales, which automakers will start reporting on Wednesday, April 1. Undoubtedly, vehicle sales, which started the month strong, have plummeted as COVID-19 spread across the country, prompting an increasing number of states to issue shelter-at-home orders that shut down dealership showrooms. As a preview, Cox … Continued

We have near real-time views of sales and prices, but a lagged view of tax refunds. The latest data reveal that the used-vehicle market achieved liftoff last week. Through Friday, February 28, tax returns filed with the IRS were up slightly (0.1%), but the number of refunds was down 1.9%. The average refund was also … Continued

The IRS caught up with statistics on tax filings and refunds through Friday, February 21. As of then, tax returns filed with the IRS were down slightly (0.1%), but the number of refunds was down 2.9%. The average refund was also down (0.6%). We were a bit more than a third of the way through … Continued

Tax refunds drive the demand that makes the spring season the most important season of the year for the used-vehicle market. This is week 9 of the year, which is when we expect to see a jump in used retail sales. Week 9 should correspond to when about half of tax refunds have been distributed … Continued

Housing continues to support growth in the U.S. economy, and consumer credit continues to flow as the Federal Reserve suggests interest rates will remain stable. Housing strong: With mortgage rates again approaching all-time lows, demand for housing is high, but supply is tight. Existing homes are appreciating much more than normal, which encourages more new … Continued