Annual per capita miles driven in the United States has plateaued since the Great Recession. In the mid-2000s miles driven peaked at around 13,200 per capita (population aged 16+) then decreased every year between 2006 and 2014. A tepid, flat-income economic recovery combined with historically higher fuel prices significantly increased the real cost of operating … Continued
Last week was a week filled with new economic data and financial market volatility. More than half of the week’s new data point to continued strength and even promising improving trends supportive of growth in the U.S. economy. The other half raises concern. Retail sales strong: Retail sales were strong in July, as Amazon Prime Day … Continued
Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist at Cox Automotive, provides a mid-year check-up on the Key Trends predicted to have the greatest impact on the automotive industry in 2019. At the year’s halfway mark, here’s an assessment of those macroeconomic trends and their implications for the future. The Economy The economy is on track with revised … Continued
It was a relatively quiet week for new economic data but featured plenty of stock market volatility amidst continued trade war drama. Consumer credit growth slows: Consumer credit growth is slowing as credit card borrowing is declining and auto lending is slowing down. A decline in credit card balances signals that consumers are starting to pull … Continued
Job growth is slowing as the underemployment rate declines to near historic lows, but job creation in July was exactly in line with the average monthly creation this year and what was expected. Wages are growing again, but hours worked are falling, limiting the positive impact for consumers. Fed cuts rates: The Fed cut rates last … Continued
Today’s rate cut was viewed by the market as a certainty. The Fed had ample opportunities to set different expectations, but only affirmed the market’s view at every turn. In terms of policy, what mattered more today was the amount of the July cut and the language regarding future cuts. We got a quarter cut—the first cut … Continued
The economy is still growing, thanks primarily to the consumer and an expanding Federal deficit. The first estimate of real GDP growth in the second quarter was 2.1%, which was better than expected but indeed a slowdown from Q1 and last year. Interest rates dropping: Interest rates appear to be heading lower with expectations for 2-3 … Continued
Consumer spending is robust and likely drove much of the second-quarter economic growth as households were confident about the economy. However, economic indicators, such as new construction activity, cast doubt on the sustainability of this growth. Labor shortages, supply disruptions, higher input prices and uncertainty about tariffs are limiting what businesses can do. Robust retail … Continued
Congratulations, fine reader, you are part of a winning team! Well done. You’re an important part of an economic expansion that’s been trucking along for 121 months now, a new post-World War II milestone. Our record upward run began back in June 2009, the month General Motors, following Chrysler, filed for bankruptcy protection and the … Continued
Overall inflation remains very low, helped by lower energy prices. The monthly trend through June gives support for an easing of monetary policy. The financial markets expect the Fed to cut rates at the end of the month. The futures market considers a quarter point cut in July as a certainty, and odds favor two … Continued
