Economic growth at the end of last year was much weaker than originally estimated. The economy decelerated to real GDP growth of 2.2%, setting up the first quarter to be much weaker as well. Mixed bag for confidence: Consumer confidence data are sending mixed signals. Confidence was down in March, but sentiment was up. Part … Continued
Economic growth slowed dramatically at the end of 2018 and remained slower to start the year. The Fed has recognized slowing growth as well as heightened risks and is now unlikely to increase short term rates this year. Yield curve inverts: Clear signs of economic weakness in Asia and Europe have pushed long-term bond yields … Continued
After a slow start to the year, many leading indicators are pointing to a stronger economy this spring. Real wage growth is now stronger than we have seen in two-and-a-half years, thanks to higher wages combined with subdued inflation. Consumer spending rebound: Consumers retreated from spending at the end of last year because of political … Continued
The March 2019 Cox Automotive Industry Update Report shares Cox Automotive’s multifaceted insight into the automotive marketplace to provide an overview of economic indicators, supply, demand, credit and other vital topics and trends affecting the industry. ECONOMIC INDICATORS The pace of new home sales improved in December after large downward revisions were made to October … Continued
Last fall the Cox Automotive Industry Insights team and I started warning about potential surprises lurking in tax refund season due to rushed changes to withholding tables made in the wake of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. In January, we published our view and the insights behind our concern. Our conclusion in aggregate was … Continued
Last week was a big week of data as government agencies provided more delayed insights into December and last year’s fourth quarter. We also received new readings on consumer sentiment and tax refunds as well as initial sales reports on the February new vehicle market. The mixed-bag economy: The economy grew better than expected in … Continued
New data points last week did not reveal any significant changes to major trends. The number and amount of tax refunds and total returns continued their downward trend for the third consecutive week. Last week’s recap: The economy is experiencing uneven growth in sectors. Manufacturing is slowing down, but services is staying strong. Interest rates … Continued
The February 2019 Cox Automotive Industry Update Report shares Cox Automotive’s multifaceted insight into the automotive marketplace to provide an overview of economic indicators, supply, demand, credit and other vital topics and trends affecting the industry. ECONOMIC INDICATORS Consumer Credit excluding housing related debt increased in December by $16.6 billion, which was less of an … Continued
Feb. 20, 2019 — Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist for Cox Automotive, writes an opinion piece in The Hill. In the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest report on household credit, we see that at the end of 2018, over 7 million Americans were 90 days or more delinquent on their monthly auto loan payments. Even … Continued
Most data points suggest that the year has started off much weaker than last year began. On the positive side, lower energy prices are keeping inflation in check and boosting real wage gains, and consumer sentiment has partially rebounded so far in February. Last Week’s Recap: Consumers started pulling back on spending at the end of … Continued
