Headline inflation accelerated further in February, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The headline aggregate measure increased on a seasonally adjusted basis and marked two months in a row of acceleration, the highest monthly increase since August. However, on a year-to-year basis, core CPI declined to the lowest since April 2021. The overall CPI … Continued

Job growth in February accelerated and was stronger than expected, but prior job numbers were revised down substantially. Some metrics indicate weakening – like the downward revisions, slower wage growth, and higher unemployment rate. However, the three-month average for job creation is at the highest pace in eight months. New-vehicle sales recovered in February from … Continued

The new-vehicle seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, improved to 15.8 million in February, up from 15.0 million in January, which was impacted by winter weather. An update on new-vehicle sales in February was published this morning. Real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 was revised down slightly to 3.2%, which … Continued

Existing home sales increased modestly in January, as the bottom in home sales was likely in 2023. However, the existing home supply remains only half of what is considered normal, and home prices still show above-average year-over-year increases. Jobless claims so far this year are not showing any substantial change in trend, reflecting limited stress … Continued

According to the Consumer Price Index, inflation reaccelerated in January as the monthly increase was 0.3%, following a 0.2% increase in December. Headline inflation declined to 3.1% from 3.4% in December.  Retail sales declined in January as weather disrupted sales in most categories. Residential construction activity also declined in January, with housing starts falling by … Continued

New-vehicle prices fell in January with weaker retail demand. Incentives relative to price reached the highest level since July 2021. Discounting relative to the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) has decreased slightly to nearly half of what it was in 2019 after being nonexistent a year ago. Used-vehicle prices were flat again in January, as … Continued

Job growth in January reaccelerated and was much stronger than expected, plus prior months were revised up. The three-month average for job creation increased to the highest level in nine months, casting doubt on the thesis that job growth is slowing. The unemployment rate and labor force participation were steady as wage inflation accelerated.  The … Continued