Job growth in January reaccelerated and was much stronger than expected, plus prior months were revised up. The three-month average for job creation increased to the highest level in nine months, casting doubt on the thesis that job growth is slowing. The unemployment rate and labor force participation were steady as wage inflation accelerated.  The … Continued

As expected, the Fed left interest rates and overall monetary policy unchanged yesterday. We have now had four straight meetings with no change in rate policy. The biggest changes from the Fed are in the language that describes their bias, which has shifted from leaning heavily towards tightening to starting to consider loosening. Rate cuts? … Continued

The economic data released last week affirmed a strong ending to 2023. Real GDP growth was 3.3% for the fourth quarter, which represented a slowing from the third quarter but was still very strong. All components of GDP were positive contributors, and while consumer spending decelerated, it remained at a healthy level for growth. Consumer … Continued

Retail sales grew more than expected in December, posting their strongest performance since January 2023. New construction trends were mixed in December, but the underlying trend suggests stability in aggregate with more strength in single-family homes. Existing home sales declined in December to the lowest level since August 2010, with the lowest inventory since March … Continued

Used-vehicle prices declined again in December while used-vehicle retail sales improved. Lower prices create demand for affordability-challenged consumers. Inflation, according to the Consumer Price Index, reaccelerated modestly in December. Headline inflation increased to 3.4% from 3.1% in November.  Consumer credit expanded substantially in November as credit card usage jumped. However, Access to auto credit declined in … Continued

Job growth in December was stronger than expected, but prior months were revised down. The three-month average shows slowing growth, and that slowing should continue in 2024. The unemployment rate was steady as labor force participation fell and wage inflation accelerated slightly. The pace of new-vehicle sales increased in December as sales into rental fleets … Continued

The video below is part of a biweekly Auto Market Report series focusing on data and insights that provide a holistic view of the auto industry. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. Download this week’s presentation