The Fed raised a quarter point today, which was widely expected. What was more important was the lack of language suggesting additional firming was anticipated, which is the Fed’s way of saying further increases are less likely than not. The increase was the tenth in a row. The Fed has raised the Fed Funds Rate … Continued
First-quarter real GDP growth reflected a slowing economy, but underneath the headline deceleration was an improvement in consumer spending. Consumer incomes and spending were stable in March. The personal savings rate increased. Key measures of inflation showed downward progress, but they remain elevated. New home sales increased in March, while pending home sales declined. Total home … Continued
Don’t Stop the Music, An Ode to the Fed I’ve assembled this playlist of great tracks reaching all the way back to the 1950s that help explain the circumstances and dynamics we face as the Fed tempts fate by raising rates to vanquish inflation that is already coming down – while banks are failing, and … Continued
The video below is part of a biweekly Auto Market Report series focusing on data and insights that provide a holistic view of the auto industry. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. Download this week’s presentation
New construction trends were mixed in March but permits and starts improved in single-family housing. Some analysts interpreted the growth as a sign that the contraction in residential construction may be nearing an end. That conclusion may be premature based on mortgage rates increasing again and credit conditions tightening. Existing home sales declined in March … Continued
Year-over-year inflation in aggregate declined in March more than expected, but core inflation increased. Retail sales declined in March as more categories were falling. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales declined and were down from a year ago. Auto loan performance improved in March from the seasonal impact of households receiving tax refunds. Even so, loan … Continued
The video below is part of a biweekly Auto Market Report series focusing on data and insights that provide a holistic view of the auto industry. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. Download this week’s presentation
The latest employment report presented another mixed view of the labor market. Job growth in March decelerated again, but the unemployment rate increased, and wage growth decelerated. Goods-related industries are shedding jobs while services add jobs. The labor market is cooling down, but likely not enough for the Fed. Jobless claims are higher than previously … Continued
Fourth quarter real GDP growth was revised down slightly with less strength in consumer spending, according to the third estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on March 30. Consumer income growth and spending growth both decelerated in February. The personal savings rate increased. Key measures of inflation showed downward progress. Pending home … Continued
The video below is part of a biweekly Auto Market Report series focusing on data and insights that provide a holistic view of the auto industry. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. Download this week’s presentation