The Federal Reserve increased the Fed Funds Rate by a quarter point despite the still-evolving banking crisis. Even before the Fed’s move, auto credit access tightened in March due to the banking situation. Interest rates are going higher because of widening yield spreads while terms are shortening. Both make payments move higher. Momentum for vehicle … Continued

While the main possibilities for action at this meeting boiled down to no raise and raising a quarter point, the Fed opted for the more aggressive move even though tightening was already occurring. Compared to where the thinking was two weeks ago, the decision seems moderate, but much has changed over the last two weeks. … Continued

Year-over-year inflation in aggregate declined modestly in February, but core inflation increased. Retail sales declined in February as auto sales and sales at miscellaneous store retailers declined. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales declined and were down slightly from a year ago. Residential construction increased more than expected in February. Most of the strength is in … Continued

The video below is part of a biweekly Auto Market Report series focusing on data and insights that provide a holistic view of the auto industry. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. Download this week’s presentation

Job growth in February decelerated but was still stronger than expected. The unemployment rate increased, and wage growth decelerated. Jobless claims are rising again. Continuing claims are fast approaching the highest level in over a year. However, claims remain at historically low levels relative to the job base. Tax refund season is well ahead of … Continued

Pending home sales were a surprise to the upside in January. The strength in new and pending home sales may be short-lived, with mortgage rates moving substantially higher in February and the weather being less cooperative. The light new-vehicle sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), declined in February to 14.9 million. Still, the … Continued

The video below is part of a biweekly Auto Market Report series focusing on data and insights that provide a holistic view of the auto industry. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. Download this week’s presentation.

Fourth quarter real GDP growth was revised down as consumer spending was downgraded more than the slowing originally estimated. Inventory growth helped deliver the relatively strong-looking number, which doesn’t speak to strong economic conditions. However, consumer spending has accelerated to start 2023. Consumer spending growth accelerated in January as personal income growth also accelerated. The … Continued

Year-over-year inflation declined in January but at a slower pace. Inflation remains elevated and much higher than the Federal Reserve’s target. Inflation impacting lower-income households remains extremely high. Retail sales increased more than expected in January. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales were unchanged year over year. Most categories are up year over year, and the consumer … Continued