Auto loan performance resumed deteriorating in May as delinquencies and defaults both increased for the first time in three months. The severe delinquency rate in May was the worst since at least 2006. The default rate rose to nearly what it was in 2019. Existing home sales saw a small gain in May, but supply … Continued

Year-over-year inflation declined again in May, with headline inflation down to 4% from a year ago. More decline is ahead when used-car prices and rents finally accurately reflect what has already happened. With inflation continuing to decline and lagged impacts still coming from the monetary tightening over the last 15 months, the Federal Reserve left … Continued

Used-vehicle sales volumes were stable in May relative to April, but they were off from the normal seasonal pattern, which is to see growth. Volumes were down 11% year-to-year, the worst performance so far this year. Wholesale used vehicle values fell again in May, and the price declines accelerated as the month progressed. Consumers continue … Continued

At the start of June, the outlook appears to be improving with the passage of the increase in the debt ceiling and a strong jobs report for May. The May employment report represented a resilient labor market with accelerating job growth but an increasing unemployment rate and decelerating wage growth. The jobs gain of 339,000 … Continued

Growing income and spending data indicate that the consumer is alive and well, and inflation is still a factor that could lead to further Fed rate increases. First-quarter economic growth was revised upward but still reflected a slowing economy in aggregate. Beneath the headline deceleration was strong consumer spending. Consumer incomes and spending saw accelerating … Continued