Key Highlights
  • New-vehicle prices set a record in September, topping $50,000 for the first time, driven by mix influenced by strong demand for EVs.
  • Used-vehicle prices fell slightly in September as sales slowed.
  • October has seen further, but modest, deterioration in consumer sentiment.

We are now more than a week into the government shutdown, but last week we had plenty of non-government data to give us a read on the auto market with initial details on new-vehicle prices in September, used-vehicle sales and prices in September, consumer credit in August, and auto credit access and auto loan performance in September.

New-Vehicle Prices Set a Record in September

THE AVERAGE TRANSACTION PRICE for a new vehicle reached $50,080 in September, up 2.1% from August and 3.6% year over year. This is the first time the average price has topped $50,000.

  • The average price relative to average MSRP was steady at 96.0%.
  • Average MSRP increased 2.1% month over month and 4.3% year over year.
  • Incentive spending increased in September to 7.4% of ATP, or approximately $3,700. Incentive levels in September were at the highest point in 2025, up from 7.2% of ATP in August. A year ago, incentive levels were equal to 7.3% of ATP.
  • The rush to buy EVs heavily influenced the mix and contributed to higher prices.
Used Vehicle Prices Fell Slightly as Sales Slowed

RETAIL USED VEHICLE SALES decreased 3.9% in September, with volumes down 2% year over year, according to estimates based on vAuto data.

  • Certified pre-owned (CPO) sales dropped 19.3% month over month but rose 6.8% year over year.
  • Wholesale values decreased 0.2% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, as the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index declined to 207.0 month over month but was up 2% from a year ago.
  • Unadjusted average prices increased 0.1% in September, leaving the unadjusted price up 2.1% year over year.
Consumer Credit Growth Slowed Substantially in August

CONSUMER CREDIT growth decelerated significantly in August, according to the latest report from the Federal Reserve.

  • Consumer credit increased by only $0.36 billion following an upwardly revised increase of $18.05 billion in July.
  • Revolving credit fell $5.96 billion after an upwardly revised increase of $11.17 billion in July.
  • Nonrevolving credit, which includes auto loans, increased by $6.32 billion following an increase of $6.88 billion.
Auto Credit Access Was Little Changed in September

ACCESS TO AUTO CREDIT was little changed in September, but trends varied by lender type according to our Dealertrack Credit Availability Indices.

  • Subprime share increased, terms lengthened, negative equity share rose, and downpayments declined, improving access for some consumers.
  • Yield spread widened by 38 basis points, working against consumers; approval rates were unchanged.
  • Credit access tightened most for new loans, driven by captive lenders, while banks loosened the most.
  • Compared to last year, credit access was looser across all channels, especially for used loans through franchise dealers.
Auto Loan Performance Deteriorated in September

DELINQUENCIES AND DEFAULTS increased, signaling deteriorating auto loan performance.

  • 60-day-plus delinquencies rose 2.2% month over month but fell 0.4% year over year.
  • 2.05% of auto loans were severely delinquent, up from 2.00% in August and 1.97% a year ago.
  • Subprime severe delinquency rate reached 7.60%, up from 7.49% in August and 7.41% a year ago.
  • Defaults increased 1.3% overall but declined 8.9% year over year; subprime defaults dropped 2.8% month over month and 15.9% year over year.
  • The annualized default rate was 3.10%, slightly higher than August but lower than last year.
Sentiment Is Down Slightly to Start October

CONSUMER SENTIMENT decreased 0.2% in the initial October reading from the University of Michigan, better than expected, but was down 22% year over year.

  • Views of current conditions improved, but expectations declined; inflation expectations for one year fell to 4.6%, while five-year expectations held at 3.7%.
  • Consumers’ views of buying conditions for vehicles improved modestly but remain worse than a year ago.

THE DAILY INDEX FROM MORNING CONSULT shows a negative trend for the month with data through October 10.

  • After decreasing 3.3% in September, the index is down 0.9% so far in October.
  • Views of current conditions and future expectations both declined in the first ten days of the month, with future expectations down slightly more.
Bottom Line

September marked a historic high for new-vehicle prices, fueled by EV demand and a rich mix of high-priced vehicles, while used vehicle prices softened amid slower sales. Consumer credit growth slowed, and auto loan performance weakened, with delinquencies and defaults rising. Credit access was steady but varied by lender type, and consumer sentiment continued to deteriorate modestly in October, reflecting persistent concerns about affordability and economic outlook.