Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem.

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Report Summary – Sept. 30, 2025

Key Highlights

  • Consumer spending momentum slowed in September after strong summer gains, signaling a shift in household behavior.
  • Retail auto sales and low-interest financing both declined, even as the Fed began cutting rates.
  • Used vehicle prices weakened at wholesale, while supply dynamics shifted with used inventory rising above last year’s levels.

Consumer Spending Strong in Summer But Slowing in September

  • Total consumer spending accelerated year over year in July, stabilized in August, and decelerated in September.
  • Weekly spending growth turned negative late in the month, reflecting softer demand.
  • This trend suggests consumers are becoming more cautious heading into Q4.

Continuing Claims Down to 1.93 Million Nationally

  • Labor market resilience continues, with continuing unemployment claims dropping to 1.93 million.
  • This marks one of the lowest levels in recent months, supporting overall economic stability.

Consumer Sentiment Down So Far in September

  • The Index of Consumer Sentiment rose modestly in July and August but is down 3.3% so far in September.
  • Higher gas prices and economic uncertainty are weighing on confidence.
  • Sentiment trends often foreshadow shifts in big-ticket purchases like vehicles.

Retail Sales Have Been Declining in September

  • New vehicle sales remain higher year over year but have fallen for two consecutive weeks, while used sales have declined more sharply.
  • Seasonal patterns and affordability pressures are key drivers of this pullback.

Low APR Financing Down Again in September

  • Despite the Fed cutting rates, low-interest financing offers continued to shrink.
  • Share of 0% APR loans remains near historic lows, limiting affordability gains.

Auto Loan Rates Up in September as the Fed Cuts

  • Average used auto loan rates climbed to 14.20%, and new loan rates reached 9.45%.
  • Rate cuts have yet to translate into lower borrowing costs for consumers.

New and Used Supply Has Risen in Recent Weeks

  • New-vehicle supply remains below last year’s levels, but used inventory is now running higher year over year.
  • This shift could pressure wholesale prices further in the coming weeks.

Used Prices Have Inverted as Wholesale Weakens

  • Wholesale prices fell 0.7% last week, while retail prices for MY 2022 vehicles held steady.
  • This divergence signals potential margin compression for dealers.

Cox Automotive Leading Indicators

Dealer activity and consumer engagement show mixed trends in September.

  • Dealer leads are up year over year in September on Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book, but leads are down for the month compared to August on both sites.
  • Unique leads per dealer are down year over year in September for new vehicles but are up for used vehicles on websites hosted by Dealer.com, and new and used leads are down for the month compared to August.
  • Unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack were up 9% year over year last week with the trend up week over week in aggregate with an increasing trend in both new and used loan applications.
  • Service trends on Xtime relative to last year improved in the week ending September 20, as completed appointments were down 1% year over year.