The first week of 2026 brought several important data releases: December jobs and unemployment figures, consumer credit trends, consumer sentiment readings and a final look at 2025 auto sales performance. With the new year underway, economic and automotive reports are flowing fast and furious, and we’ll continue tracking these developments in the weeks ahead.

New-Vehicle Sales Rose In December But Remain Lower Year Over Year

Official new-vehicle sales were released last week and updated through the month of December. Additionally, our team produced updates on new-vehicle pricing and incentives.

  • New light vehicle sales were 13.8% higher in December against November and appear to have finished the month on a stronger note, while new sales showed a decline of 2.3% against the end of 2024. December vehicle sales included one additional selling day compared to both November and the prior year.
  • Year to date, sales remain positive against last year and are up 2.4%. However, the rate of growth decelerated in the last quarter from nearly +5% at the end of the third quarter to +3% at year-end.
  • The December seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) rose to 16.0 million, up 1.9% from 15.7 million in November but roughly 5% lower year over year, as December 2024 ended at a very strong 16.8 million pace.
  • Fleet vehicle sales strengthened across all channels in December. According to Bobit, total fleet sales rose about 15% in the month, driven by a 17% increase in rental sales and a 15% gain in commercial. Fleet sales helped the overall market in the final month of the year, with fleet share increasing to 17.2%, up from 15% of total sales in December 2024.
  • Kelley Blue Book average transaction prices (ATP) rose by over 1% this month and moved above $50,000 at the end of the year, even with more discounting, though they are higher by just 0.8% against 2024 levels. Incentives for the month of December moved up to 7.5% of the ATP and the highest level seen throughout 2025, though still below last December’s rate of 7.9%. (Check back in Insights for the December ATP report.)
Job Growth and Unemployment Trends in December

Last week, we received the jobs and unemployment report on time for the first month since September, as the government shutdown impacted reporting in recent months. The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in December, yet the unemployment rate fell for the first time since June.

  • The U.S. economy added 50,000 jobs in December, below expectations of around 66,000. This marks another month of subdued job growth as the labor market continues to cool.
  • Prior months saw significant downward revisions: November was revised down by 8,000 jobs, while October was revised down by 68,000 to show a loss of 173,000 jobs. With these revisions, the three-month rolling average for job creation stands at negative 22,000, reflecting the volatility in job growth during the second half of 2025.
  • The unemployment rate for December fell by a tenth of a point, down to 4.4% from a downwardly revised 4.5% in November. This is the first decline in the unemployment rate since June, although the rate remains 30 basis points higher than last year’s level. Both the labor force participation rate as well as the employment to population ratio showed little change in December from November, and both indicators are slightly lower than last year.
  • Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in December and are 3.8% higher than last year, outpacing the rate of inflation.
Consumer Credit Growth Increased in November But Lower Than Expected

Consumer credit growth remained positive in November but decelerated from October’s pace, according to the latest report from the Federal Reserve.

  • Consumer credit increased by $4.23 billion following a revised increase of $9.24 billion in October. Credit growth was much lower than expected in the month of November, although helped by growth in nonrevolving credit.
  • Revolving credit declined $2.04 billion after a revised increase of $5.40 billion in October.
  • Nonrevolving credit, which includes auto loans and student loans, increased by $6.27 billion, accelerating from an increase of $3.84 billion in October. The acceleration was primarily driven by student loan growth.
Consumer Sentiment

Consumer sentiment readings show mixed results in early January, with one index rising while another fell.

  • The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose 2.1% in early January to 54.0, up from December but still well below last year’s level. The report noted improvements among lower-income consumers offset by declining sentiment among higher-income groups, with overall worries about tariffs appearing to ease.
  • Consumer inflation expectations were mixed: 1-year expectations held steady at 4.2%, while 5-year expectations rose to 3.4%. Both metrics remain elevated compared to last year, though they’ve declined from Spring 2025 levels.
  • In contrast, the Morning Consult daily sentiment index has fallen 3.2% since late December to 95.29, now 6% lower year-over-year.
Bottom Line

The start of 2026 brings a familiar tension: Economic data that doesn’t quite add up to a clear story. December’s job growth of 50,000 fell short of already-modest expectations, with lumpy revisions holding the three-month average in negative territory. Yet unemployment ticked down, and wage growth remains healthy at 3.8% year over year, still outpacing inflation. For dealers, the jobs picture matters less for what December showed than for what it signals about consumer confidence heading into the spring selling season, with tax refunds expected to increase meaningfully.

Vehicle sales reflect similar ambiguity at year’s end. December’s 16 million SAAR represents decent momentum to close 2025, but the 5% year-over-year decline and decelerating growth trajectory suggest headwinds remain. Fleet strength, particularly the 17% jump in rental sales, helped mask softer retail performance. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment readings are pulling in opposite directions, with Michigan improving while Morning Consult slides lower. Credit growth disappointed, though the $6.27 billion increase in nonrevolving credit (including auto loans) shows financing appetite hasn’t collapsed.

The question for 2026: Whether these mixed signals resolve or continue holding us in uncertainty. Friday’s employment report has had little impact on the bond market, with the Fed Funds futures projection not showing another implied rate cut until June 2026. There’s a lot of time between now and then, and consumers are walking a fine line in sentiment readings. The inflation data we receive in the next few weeks will be critical to framing discussions around the Fed’s next move, while we wait to see who will be appointed as the next Fed Chair.