This edition of the Auto Market Weekly Summary includes updates on new-vehicle sales and pricing, employment conditions, and consumer credit. April’s sales data landed slightly below expectations, while the jobs report offered a brighter surprise. Consumer credit expanded in March as well, with the headline gain nearly doubling expectations.

Bottom Line Up Front

April’s new-vehicle market delivered mixed signals. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales came in at 15.9 million, slightly below expectations and down 7.1% from last year’s tariff-lifted pace, as tax refund season winds down and elevated fuel costs begin to weigh on spending. With the 2026 SAAR averaging near 15.5 million through April, a downward revision to Cox Automotive’s full-year outlook is under consideration.

Pricing held relatively firm, with average transaction prices (ATP) at $49,461 and incentive spending easing month over month. The year-over-year spread between ATP and the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) widened slightly, reflecting ongoing affordability pressure.

The jobs report was last week’s clearest upside surprise, with nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000 against expectations of 65,000. Healthcare and transportation led the gains, but the three-month rolling average sits at just 48,000, well below historical norms, and the labor force participation rate fell again, dropping to 61.8%. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings grew just 0.1% in the month, pulling the year-over-year gain to 3.7%, only modestly above headline inflation, leaving little room for real wage gains to support big-ticket purchases.

Consumer credit expanded sharply in March, growing at a 5.8% annualized rate—well above expectations. Revolving credit led the acceleration, though some of that strength likely reflects higher gas prices flowing through to credit card balances rather than broad consumer confidence. Motor vehicle loan balances remain essentially flat year over year, consistent with the cautious demand picture in the new vehicle market.

The spring selling season is entering its final stretch with the demand environment softer than it appeared a month ago. Tax refund dollars have largely been deployed, fuel costs remain a headwind, and the labor market is not generating the kind of income growth that supports a meaningful acceleration in vehicle sales. Credit availability remains a constructive offset, but the macro backdrop suggests a slowing market as we move into the summer months.

New Vehicle Sales Trends

New-vehicle sales came in slightly below expectations in April. With fuel prices elevated and consumer confidence under pressure, it is difficult to see how the pace accelerates meaningfully for the remainder of the year.

  • April SAAR finished at 15.9 million, down 7.1% from last year’s tariff-lifted pace and slightly below the prior month’s 16.2 million, suggesting a slower pace as tax refund season winds down.
  • Sales volume for April was 1.36 million units, down 6.9% year-over-year and 1.9% from March. April had 26 selling days, matching last April and one more than March.
  • Fleet sales declined 1% in April per Bobit, the first monthly decline of 2026, driven by lower rental activity. Through April, fleet sales remain 3.8% ahead of last year, led by a nearly 10% gain in commercial fleet.
  • Fleet share was estimated at 18.3% in April, down from 18.4% last April, with fleet SAAR near 2.8 million, a decline of nearly 12% year over year.
  • Retail SAAR in April was estimated at 13.1 million, a 6% decline from last April’s 14.1 million pace.

New Vehicle Pricing Trends

Automakers held pricing discipline despite solid sales volume, with incentive spending for the industry down 4.1% month over month. Transaction prices continued to edge upward.

  • The ATP was $49,461 in April, up 0.7% month over month and holding below the $50,000 threshold for the fourth consecutive month.
  • ATP in April were higher by 1.8% year over year, a deceleration from March’s 3.2% year-over-year gain, suggesting the recent pace of annual price appreciation may be moderating.
  • Average incentives rose to $3,394 in April, up 3.5% against last year. Incentives as a percentage of ATP eased to 6.9%, down from March’s 7.2% and slightly above last year’s 6.8%.
  • The spread—or discount—between ATP and MSRP widened to 4.3% in April, an increase from last year’s 4% discount, a sign that affordability pressure continues to put downward pressure on transaction prices.

Jobs and Unemployment

April’s jobs report came in stronger than expected, led by gains in healthcare and transportation. Government jobs growth continued to decline. The unemployment rate for the month showed no change, while the labor force participation rate declined again.

  • Nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000 in April, much stronger than the 65,000 gain expected. The gains were concentrated in the service sector, with healthcare and social assistance adding 53,900 jobs.
  • The transportation and warehousing sector also showed solid growth. Most of the increase there was driven by couriers and messengers, up 37,900 in the month.
  • February’s decline was revised lower by 16,000 to 156,000 jobs lost. However, the March data was revised higher to a gain of 185,000 jobs, which partially offset the decline in February. 
  • The three-month rolling average of jobs created fell to 48,000, remaining well below historical levels.
  • The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, higher by 10 basis points year over year. The labor force participation rate fell again to 61.8%.
  • Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% month over month, pulling the year-over-year rate down to 3.7%, only slightly above headline CPI.

Consumer Credit

Consumer credit expanded sharply in March, with the headline gain coming in well above expectations and marking a notable acceleration from the prior month’s sluggish pace.

  • Total consumer credit increased by $24.9 billion in March, nearly double the consensus expectation of $12.5 billion and up significantly from a downwardly revised $8.8 billion gain in February.
  • On an annualized basis, total credit grew at a 5.8% rate in the month, the strongest in a year.
  • Revolving credit added $10 billion in March, growing at an annualized rate of 9.1% after near-flat growth of 0.3% in February. Part of the strength may reflect increased spending on gasoline. Revolving credit could face headwinds later in the year if higher energy prices compress real disposable income.
  • Non-revolving credit expanded by $14.8 billion, growing at an annualized rate of 4.7% in March.
  • Student loan balances grew by 3.3% in the first quarter, a rate of growth in line with the last few quarters. 
  • Loans for motor vehicles, as reported by the Fed, were slightly down in Q1 compared to the prior quarter and higher by 0.4% against last year.