Updated, March 4, 2026: February’s seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is now being estimated at 15.8 million, near Cox Automotive’s original forecast of 15.6 million and an improvement from January’s weather-impacted pace. February sales volume totaled 1.20 million, up 8.5% month over month.
The month-over-month increase was widely expected, but February sales were lower compared to one year ago, aligning more closely with the slower sales pace in the final quarter of 2025. In fact, the sales pace has now been lower year over year for five consecutive months. In the latest measure, January’s SAAR was also revised down to 14.8 million from 14.9 million. January’s slow result can be easily explained by harsh weather in much of the country. Still, the SAAR of 14.8 million made January the slowest new-vehicle sales month in more than three years.
By segment, early indicators suggest domestic trucks performed slightly better than expected last month. Fleet sales declined modestly, while the retail sales pace edged up slightly compared to 2025 levels, a positive sign in the market.
Broader uncertainty remains a headwind for shoppers. As the Cox Automotive Economic and Industry Insights team noted earlier this week, the war in Iran and heightened Middle East tensions only put further stress on already fragile consumer confidence. Sentiment in February was lower year over year, and persistent global tension can have meaningful impacts on sentiment and direct implications for big-ticket purchases like vehicles and homes.
March is traditionally a big month for new-vehicle sales. In 2025, the March new-vehicle SAAR roared to 17.9 million, due mostly to tariff announcements. Cox Automotive is not expecting a repeat performance this year.
ATLANTA, Feb. 24, 2026 – February new-vehicle sales are expected to reflect ongoing challenges due to winter weather and economic uncertainty, yet demonstrate some improvement compared to January’s results. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales (SAAR) in February is anticipated to be approximately 15.6 million. This figure represents a decline from last year’s 16.0 million level but marks an increase over January’s weather-affected pace of 14.9 million.
According to the Cox Automotive forecast released today, new-vehicle sales volume is expected to finish at 1.19 million, down 3.4% from last February, which had the same number of selling days. Compared to January, new-vehicle sales volume is forecast to rise by 6.9% in February, with two fewer selling days, which is the typical seasonal trend.
“The new-vehicle sales pace shifted to a lower gear in Q4 of last year, and that weakness is expected to continue through this month as well,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. “February’s SAAR is expected to improve on January’s weather-impacted 14.9 million level but still reflect the harsh headwinds facing vehicle buyers. The loss of electric vehicle tax credits at the end of Q3 continues to impact sales. Also, the market is slowing due to ongoing concerns about the U.S. economy and high new-vehicle prices. These conditions are expected to be major headwinds for the new-vehicle market throughout 2026.
“However, we may see some strengthening in the coming months as tax refunds are distributed across the country. The Big Beautiful Bill passed in July of last year is expected to result in higher refunds this year, so this could provide a minor, short-term boost to vehicle sales in the coming months.”
February 2026 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
February has 24 selling days, the same as last year but two fewer than January.
About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and Cox Fleet®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $23 billion in annual revenue. Cox Automotive has been included on Glassdoor’s Best Companies in Tech & AI 2026 and Best Place to Work in 2026 lists. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.
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