Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: June 10

Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem.

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Report Summary – June 10, 2025

Key Highlights

• Consumer sentiment is rebounding, with a 7.1% jump in May and continued gains in June, signaling renewed optimism.
• Retail vehicle sales remain steady, with used vehicles slightly outperforming new in early June.
• Used vehicle prices continue to decline, narrowing the gap between retail and wholesale values.

Consumer Confidence Rebounds as Spending Holds Steady

Despite a deceleration from April’s peak, consumer spending remains positive, and sentiment is on the rise.

• April marked the strongest year-over-year growth in consumer spending since early January.
• The Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 7.1% in May and is up another 2.3% in June.
• Continuing jobless claims have declined to 1.90 million, supporting the improving outlook.

Retail Sales Hold Ground Amid Shifting Dynamics

Retail vehicle sales are relatively steady, with used vehicles showing slightly stronger performance than new.

• New vehicle sales have dipped just below last year’s levels.
• Used vehicle sales are holding slightly higher year over year.
• Dealer incentives and pricing strategies are helping maintain momentum.

Financing Conditions Remain Tight but Show Signs of Easing

Loan rates remain elevated, but low-interest financing offers are becoming more prevalent.

• The share of low APR deals (<3%) has increased in early June compared to recent months.
• Average loan rates for used vehicles rose to 14.30% in June, up from 14.17% in May.
• New vehicle loan rates also edged up to 9.66% from 9.53% in May.

Inventory Levels Stabilize After Spring Lows

New and used vehicle supply is showing signs of stabilization after hitting lows in April.

• Days’ supply for both new and used vehicles has increased modestly.
• Inventory remains tight but is no longer declining, offering some relief to dealers and consumers.
• Stabilizing supply may help moderate pricing pressures in the coming weeks.

Used Vehicle Prices Continue to Decline and Converge

The downward trend in used vehicle prices continues, with retail and wholesale values moving closer together.

• Retail prices for model year 2022 vehicles declined 0.1% last week.
• Wholesale prices fell 0.4% during the same period.
• The narrowing gap between retail and wholesale suggests a more balanced market.

Cox Automotive Leading Indicators

• Dealer leads are up year over year so far in June on Autotrader, but are down on Kelley Blue Book. Leads are up for the month so far compared to May on Kelley Blue Book, but down on Autotrader.
• Unique leads per dealer for new vehicles are down year over year to start June for both new and used vehicles on websites hosted by Dealer.com, and new and used leads are down for the month compared to May.
• Unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack were up 6% year over year last week, with the trend unchanged week over week in aggregate but showing gains for new and declines used.
• Service trends on Xtime relative to last year declined in the week ending May 31, as completed appointments were down 2.1% year over year.