Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: June 24

Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem.

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Report Summary – June 24, 2025

Key Highlights

• Consumer spending showed resilience in Q2, but momentum is moderating as summer begins.
• Jobless claims continue to trend downward, reinforcing labor market strength.
• Consumer sentiment surged in May but is softening again in June, signaling caution ahead.

Consumer Spending: A Spring Surge, Now Stabilizing

After a robust acceleration in April, consumer spending cooled in May and has since stabilized in June. This pattern reflects a dynamic but cautious consumer base navigating a complex economic landscape.

• April saw the strongest year-over-year growth in spending since early 2023.
• May’s moderation was expected as tax refund effects waned and inflationary pressures persisted.
• June’s plateau suggests consumers are recalibrating amid mixed economic signals.

Labor Market: Claims Continue to Decline

The labor market remains a pillar of economic strength, with continuing jobless claims falling to 1.95 million nationally.

• This marks one of the lowest levels since early 2022.
• The decline in claims supports sustained consumer activity and confidence.
• Employers remain cautious but committed to retaining talent amid productivity gains.

Consumer Sentiment: A Rollercoaster Ride

The Index of Consumer Sentiment jumped 7.1% in May, reflecting optimism around inflation and employment. However, early June data shows a 4.0% decline, indicating renewed uncertainty.

• Gas prices and interest rate expectations are key drivers of sentiment volatility.
• The sentiment dip may reflect geopolitical concerns and market volatility.
• Despite the pullback, sentiment remains above early 2024 levels.

Cox Automotive Leading Indicators

Cox Automotive leading indicators show are mixed, with a cautiously optimistic tilt.

• Dealer leads are up year over year so far in June on Autotrader, but are down on Kelley Blue Book, and leads are up for the month so far compared to May on Kelley Blue Book but down on Autotrader.
• Unique leads per dealer are down year over year in June for both new and used vehicles on websites hosted by Dealer.com, and new and used leads are down for the month compared to May.
• Unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack were up 8% year over year last week, with the trend improving week over week in aggregate, with improving trends in both new and used vehicle credit applications.
• Service trends on Xtime relative to last year declined in the week ending June 14, as completed appointments were down 3% year over year.