Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: April 15

Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem.

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Report Summary – April 15, 2025

Key Highlights:

• Retail vehicle sales are rising sharply with tariff pull ahead.
• Average auto loan rates moved lower in March and April.
• New and used vehicle supply is declining and lower against 2024.

Consumer Spending and Sentiment

Consumer spending had the strongest year-over-year growth in the final week of 2024 and early January, but growth weakened in March.

• The Index of Consumer Sentiment declined 0.1% in January, 1.7% in February, and 3.9% in March.
• Continuing claims are down to 1.85 million nationally.

Retail Vehicle Sales

Sales trends for new and used vehicles are well above last year’s levels through early April.

• Retail vehicle sales are rising sharply due to tariff pull ahead.
• Low-interest rate deals are down 5 points year over year, and 0% interest loans are also lower.

Auto Loan Rates

Auto rates moved higher to start 2025 but declined in March and April.

• The average auto loan rate for new vehicles is 9.17%, and for used vehicles, it is 13.93%.

Vehicle Supply

New supply has fallen sharply over the last month, while used supply remains tight.

• New and used vehicle supply is declining and lower compared to 2024.

Used Vehicle Prices

The average price for retail and wholesale used vehicles has risen.

• The average MY 2022 price for retail rose 0.3%, while wholesale rose almost 1.0% for the week.

Tax Refund Season

The total number of refunds is up 1% versus 2024, and the average refund is higher by 3% year over year.

• Tax refund season is up over last year, with cumulative refunds and average refund amounts showing an increase.

Cox Automotive Leading Indicators

• Dealer leads are down slightly year over year so far in April on Autotrader but are up strongly on Kelley Blue Book, and leads were up strongly for the month compared to March on Kelley Blue Book but down on Autotrader.
• Unique leads per dealer for new and used vehicles are up year over year so far in April on websites hosted by Dealer.com, and new leads are up for the month compared to March, while used leads are down slightly.
• Unique credit applications on Dealertrack are up 10% year over year so far in April, with the trend in applications improving over March but down from the trend in the final week of March.
• Service trends on Xtime relative to last year were stable and strong in the week ending April 5, as completed appointments were up 3.5% year over year.