Smoke on Cars
Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: Aug. 20
Tuesday August 20, 2024
Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem.
Download this week’s presentation
Report Summary – Aug. 20, 2024
The current automotive market is volatile, as illustrated by the fluctuating nature of consumer spending growth, a slight rise in consumer sentiment and normalizing retail vehicle sales trends. Recent data show a rise in low APR financing and that average auto loan rates are changing less than bond yields. Additionally, a slow recovery from the CDK outage and a divergence in used price trends are apparent. Cox Automotive’s leading indicators show a decline in leads for Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book and an increase in unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack.
Consumer Spending Growth Slowed, Remains Volatile
Total spending trends turned more negative in the second half of June and has been up and down since.
Continuing Claims at 1.86 Million Nationally
The latest unemployment data show that continuing claims stand at 1.86 million nationally.
Consumer Sentiment Now Up Slightly in August
Consumer sentiment showed a slight increase in August, following a 0.6% rise in June and a 1.9% rise in July.
Retail Vehicle Sales Trends Normalizing Post DMS Disruptions
Retail vehicle sales trends started normalizing after the DMS disruptions, with new sales dropping 5% from the previous week.
Low APR Financing
The presentation indicated that the mix of rates below 3% had increased this month.
Average Auto Loan Rates Changing Less Than Bond Yields
According to the report, average auto loan rates changed less in August compared to bond yields.
Supply Impacts From CDK Outage Are Winding Down
The supply issues caused by the CDK outage were found to be slowly normalizing.
Used-Vehicle Price Trends Show Divergence
The presentation identified a divergence in used price trends, with the average MY 2021 wholesale price increasing by 0.3%.
Cox Automotive Leading Indicators
- Leads: On Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book, leads are down year over year so far in August, and leads are up for the month compared to July on both sites.
- Dealer Metrics: Unique leads per dealer are down year over year so far in August for new and used vehicles on websites hosted by Dealer.com, and leads are down for the month compared to July. Unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack were up 4% year over year last week, with the trend in applications per dealer improving week over week.
- Service Trends: Service trends on Xtime relative to last year improved last week, as completed appointments were down 2% year over year.