Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: Jan. 7

Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem.

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Report Summary – Jan. 7, 2025

Key Highlights:

Current State of the Auto Industry: Key Insights from the Cox Automotive Auto Market Report

Key Highlights:

• Consumer spending surged in early December, reflecting a positive economic outlook.
• Retail vehicle sales showed strength at the end of the year, defying seasonal trends.
• Average auto loan rates declined in December but saw an uptick in early January.

Consumer Spending Growth Surges in Early December

Consumer spending trends were volatile due to the timing of Thanksgiving, but overall, there was a significant increase in early December.

• Total spending trends showed a year-over-year increase as of Dec. 7, 2024.
• The Index of Consumer Sentiment increased for six consecutive months but saw a slight decline in early January.

Retail Vehicle Sales Show Strength at Year-End

Despite typical seasonal trends, retail vehicle sales for new vehicles increased in December, while used vehicle sales remained flat.

• New retail sales saw an upward trend in December, contrasting with the usual seasonal decline.
• Used retail sales remained stable, showing resilience in the market.

Average Auto Loan Rates Declined Again in December

Auto loan rates experienced a decline in December, although they began to rise again in early January.

• The average used auto loan rate was 13.50%, while the new auto loan rate was 8.90% in early January.
• Low-interest rate deals remained flat under 3%, but no-interest financing deals saw a slight decline.

Supply Situation Remains Mixed for New & Used Vehicles

The supply of new and used vehicles showed mixed trends, with new vehicle supply higher year over year but declining in December, while used vehicle supply rose slightly in December but was down year over year.

• New-vehicle supply showed a year-over-year increase but declined in December.
• Used-vehicle supply rose slightly in December but was down compared to the previous year.

Used Price Trends Continued to Decline at Year End

Both retail and wholesale prices for used vehicles continued to decline at the end of the year.

• The average retail price for model year 2021 vehicles fell by 0.3% in the final week of the year.
• Wholesale prices also saw a 0.3% decline.

Cox Automotive Leading Indicators

Leading indicators from Cox Automotive showed mixed trends in early January.

• Leads are up year over year so far in January on Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book, and leads are up for the month compared to December on Autotrader.
• Unique leads per dealer for new and used vehicles are down year over year so far in January on websites hosted by Dealer.com, and new and used leads are down for the month compared to December.
• Unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack were down year over year last week with the trend in applications per dealer declining week over week, but the week had a very unfavorable comparison with the holiday in the middle of the week.
• Service trends on Xtime relative to last year declined last week, as completed appointments were down year over year but against a tough comparison week.