Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: July 23rd

Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem.

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Report Summary – July 23, 2024

The July 23, 2024, Cox Automotive Auto Market Report delivers a thorough examination of the current state of the auto industry, highlighting critical trends and metrics. Notably, consumer spending is recovering despite a recent dip, with the first week of June showing positive movement. Unemployment figures indicate a stable job market with 1.87 million continuing claims nationwide. Retail vehicle sales are on the rise, with new and used sales increasing by 14% and 8%, respectively. The financing landscape reveals shifting auto loan rates, while supply measures display signs of normalization. Divergent trends in used vehicle prices and leading indicators from Autotrader, Kelley Blue Book, and Dealer.com provide valuable insights for industry stakeholders. This report equips decision-makers with the essential information needed to navigate the evolving market landscape confidently.

Consumer Spending Dynamics

While consumer spending experienced a slowdown in May, early June witnessed a resurgence. However, the rate of growth remains relatively soft. This section provides data on year-over-year changes in total spending, offering insights into consumer behavior patterns over the past 52 weeks.

Unemployment Statistics

The report shows that continuing claims sit at approximately 1.87 million nationwide. There are details on industry trends and factors influencing these numbers, and understanding this context is crucial for predicting future market developments.

Retail Vehicle Sales Trends

Retail vehicle sales started to recover from their earlier slump as we moved into July.

• New sales experienced a 14% rise over the past week.
• Used sales saw an 8% increase, mitigating some of the damage from June.

Financing Landscape

Manufacturers are not offering many low-rate loans, but lucky consumers can find some financing deals ahead of expected market rate declines later this year.

• Rates below 3% remain higher than in 2023 but fell in July.
• 0% APR saw a 0.6% rise year over year.
• The average used rate stands at 14.42%, while the average new rate remains relatively stable at 9.83%.

Auto Supply Measures

Disruptions in reporting impacted supply measures, but the situation is now normalizing. New supply is 49 days higher year over year but has decreased 12% week over week, while used supply fell by 2% last week.

Used Price Trends

The report notes a divergence in used price trends – the average MY 2021 wholesale price rose by 0.3% last week, while the retail price fell by 0.5%.

Cox Automotive Leading Indicators

• Leads: Leads are down year over year so far in July on Autotrader, but leads are up on Kelley Blue Book, and leads are up for the month compared to June on both sites.
• Dealer Metrics: Unique leads per dealer are down year over year so far in July for new and used vehicles on websites hosted by Dealer.com, but used leads are up for the month compared to June. Unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack were up 3% year over year last week, with applications per dealer improving week over week.
• Service Trends: Service trends on Xtime relative to last year recovered from the disruptions in late June and early July, as completed appointments are down 1% year over year.