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Data Point

Robust December Sales Draw Down New-Vehicle Inventory to Start the Year

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Article Highlights

  1. At the start of January, total U.S. supply of available unsold new vehicles fell below 3.0 million units for the first time since October.
  2. Days’ supply continues to trend lower, dropping by 14.2% month over month to 75 days, while remaining stable compared to a year ago.
  3. The average listing price of a new vehicle was $49,853 at the end of December, up 1.8% from a month earlier and higher by 1.9% compared to December 2023.

New-vehicle sales roared at the end of the year, with a strong December finish. Following the resolution of election uncertainties, interest rates began to decline and inventory levels reached their peak for the year. This created an ideal blend of improved consumer sentiment, bigger discounts and evident optimism in the market. New-vehicle sales rose by 6.5% in December compared to November; inventory fell by 8.5% during the same period.


2.88M

Total Inventory
as of Jan. 6, 2025

75

Days’ Supply

$49,853

Average Listing Price


According to an analysis of vAuto Live Market View data, the total U.S. supply of available unsold new vehicles at the start of 2025 stood at 2.88 million units, the first time it registered below 3 million since the end of October. However, this inventory is 18.1% higher than a year ago. The sales pace this past December was also higher year over year by 12.7%. Days’ supply continued to decline in December after increasing in November, dropping by 14.2% month over month to 75 days, at a level mostly unchanged compared to a year ago.

While the end of the year typically sees an uptick in luxury vehicle sales, December was particularly strong for higher-priced vehicles. This is evident in the concentration of vehicles priced over $80,000 showing the lowest days’ supply at 62 days. In fact, the top two luxury brands for 2024, BMW and Lexus, are starting the year off with the lowest days’ supply among luxury brands, at 47 days and 21 days, respectively.

Compact SUVs and full-size pickups continue to top the charts for new-vehicle sales. The Toyota RAV4, which displaced the Ram 1500 from the top three biggest sellers for 2024, is running at 18 days’ supply with an average listing price of $37,626. The Honda CR-V has 38 days’ supply, more than double that of the RAV4 but still well below the national average of 75 days and priced a little over $200 more. Sales for both models are nearly identical, but Honda has managed to maintain a slightly higher supply.

Notably, Stellantis continues to exercise discipline in production and make good with dealers by extending some of the industry’s highest incentives. Inventory, as promised by leadership, has been coming down. Days’ supply is now lower by up to 52% for the Dodge brand, 40% for Chrysler and 14% for Jeep year over year. Ram inventory, as measured by days’ supply, is mostly unchanged year over year.

DECEMBER DAYS’ SUPPLY OF INVENTORY BY BRAND

New-Vehicle Pricing Nears $50,000

The average listing price for a new vehicle in the latest report was $49,853, up 1.8% from a month earlier and higher by 2.4% compared to last year. Meanwhile, the average transaction price (ATP) of a new vehicle in the U.S. in December, reported by Kelley Blue Book earlier this week, was $49,740, the second-highest ATP in history. Since 2012, the monthly Kelley Blue Book ATP has been $49,000 or above only five times, peaking at $49,926 in December 2022. 

In December, new-vehicle sales incentives remained unchanged from November, holding steady at 8.0% of ATP, or approximately $3,958. However, compared to peak pricing in December 2022, the average incentive package on a new vehicle last month was higher by 197%, suggesting that inventory is no longer the squeeze driving higher prices. In December 2022, the average incentive was just 2.7% of ATP.

While luxury left its mark on December sales, incentive packages as a percentage of ATP were nearly identical for luxury and non-luxury at 7.9% and 8%, respectively. Nissan, Volkswagen and Ram provided incentives above 13%, while Toyota, Land Rover and Porsche kept their incentives below 5% of the average transaction price.

Erin Keating
Executive Analyst

Erin Keating is an Executive Analyst and Senior Director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. She has 25 years of experience in marketing and communications, including 10 years with Audi of America, where she also ran Audi Motorsport North America. With a focus on the wider industry, the individual automakers, and consumer shopping and buying behavior for new vehicles, Erin provides analysis and insights leveraging the breadth and depth of data from DRiVEQ, Cox Automotive’s data intelligence engine. Upon joining Cox Automotive, Erin was responsible for Enterprise Data Strategy – Partnerships. Erin is based in Atlanta.

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