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Cox Automotive Forecast: New-Vehicle Sales Return to a Slower Pace in July, With Little Upside Expected in Second Half
Monday July 28, 2025
Article Highlights
- The new-vehicle sales pace in July is expected to finish near 15.6 million, up modestly from last month’s 15.3 million level and down from last July’s 15.8 million pace.
- Sales volume in July is forecast to reach 1.30 million, up 2.5% from last month and 1.2% from last year.
- Consumer demand for new vehicles remains steady at a slower pace, with little upside expected in the coming months.
Updated, Aug. 4, 2025 – July new-vehicle sales finished stronger than expected and beat the Cox Automotive forecast. Sales volume last month was higher year over year by 6.6% percent, helped in part by a good month for fleet sales, which are estimated to have increased more than 8% over July 2024. Cox Automotive had been expecting an overall sales increase in July, but the volume of 1.37 million was ahead of our estimate of 1.30 million.
Interestingly, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of sales is now being estimated at 16.4 million, making the sales pace last month the best July since 2019. The hotter pace was driven in part by some statistical oddities, but the bottom line is that new-vehicle sales in the U.S. picked up at the end of July and came in better than expected.
July’s new-vehicle results – led by many of the industry’s biggest players – suggest the U.S. consumer continues to hang in there while navigating uncertain economic conditions. Recent data suggest the economy is in choppy waters, with higher inflation trends and a weaker-than-expected jobs report in July. As Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke notes, “The July report did not indicate major problems with layoffs, but hiring has slowed to a crawl, and participation is down. Job growth is likely to remain depressed as businesses see weak sales growth and declining margins from the impact of tariffs and costs that are not being passed along to consumers.”
The fact that retail prices for new vehicles have remained relatively stable despite the administration’s aggressive tariff policy is likely relief for vehicle shoppers (although painful for vehicle makers). Plus, a strong equities market in Q2 has added to the wealth effect that benefits the new-vehicle market. With sufficient pent-up demand in place, some well-off households are likely resigned to the fact that “uncertainty” is now the norm for the economy and are choosing to buy rather than wait.
Where do we go from here? Cox Automotive is still expecting vehicle prices to increase further in the second half of 2025 as Model Year 2026 vehicles arrive on dealer lots and automakers work to claw back the tariff-induced costs they booked in Q2. As we’ve noted before, 2025 may be the year that the average transaction price of a new automobile moves above $50,000. Higher prices will be a drag on sales. How that scenario unfolds is still TBD, but one thing is for certain: The final months of 2025 will be a lesson in price elasticity.
ATLANTA, July 28, 2025 – July new-vehicle sales, when announced next week, are expected to show a market back at a level equal to recent norms – stuck at the mid-15-million level. July’s monthly sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), is forecast by Cox Automotive to reach 15.6 million, up slightly from June’s weaker 15.3 million level but down from last July’s 15.8 million.
The sales pace of mid-15-million has been consistent for more than two years now, if the abnormal surge measured in March and April – when the sales pace averaged 17.5 million following threats of excessive tariffs on all imported vehicles – is removed from the data set. Sales volume is expected to increase slightly to 1.30 million, up 2.5% from last month and 1.2% from last year. However, this gain is overstated as July has 26 selling days, two more than last month and one more than last year.
According to Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive: “After the sales surge in March and April, the new-vehicle market has dropped right back to where it started. High prices and high interest rates are holding the market consistently below 16 million, despite improving inventory levels. And there’s no reason to believe trends are improving from here. We are seeing more tariffed products replacing existing inventory, and costs are trending higher. As those higher costs trickle through to retail, sales will likely soften in the coming months unless the economic direction improves.”
July 2025 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and FleetNet America®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $23 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.
Media Contacts:
Mark Schirmer
734 883 6346
mark.schirmer@coxautoinc.com
Dara Hailes
470 658 0656
dara.hailes@coxautoinc.com