Cox Automotive Forecast: May New-Vehicle Sales To Cool After Tariff-Fueled Surge, 16M SAAR Expected

Updated, June 4, 2025 – As expected, the cumulative challenges of the tariff uncertainty and vehicle affordability are beginning to show up in the new-vehicle sales numbers. In May, according to initial estimates, new-vehicle sales were close to 1.47 million units, generally flat versus April and higher by 2.5% from year-ago levels. The numbers came in slightly lower than the Cox Automotive May forecast below. Importantly, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of sales last month dropped to 15.6 million, down notably from March and April when the sales pace accelerated to well above 17-million SAAR, the highest levels since 2021.

Despite solid results from Ford, Toyota, the Korean brands and others, our analysts had been forecasting a slowdown in May, as inventory tightened and prices climbed. And indeed, the March-April rush now appears to be in the rearview mirror. The good news? A new-vehicle market pace in May of 15.6 million is generally back in line with pre-March levels and is an indication the market is not collapsing quickly. Importantly, the job market is holding up, and that’s critical for vehicle sales. As Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke noted late last month, “Despite the uptick in traditional claims, the broader trend remains below pre-pandemic levels, suggesting labor market resilience.”

The full Cox Automotive reports on pricing and inventory for May will be available next week. The numbers suggest May began with new-vehicle inventory down more than 10% from year-earlier levels. Days’ supply was at 66, down from 72 at the start of April. New-vehicle listing prices have also been moving higher as inventory declined. The hot sales pace of March and April is clearly fading, and May was likely the turning point. 

ATLANTA, May 27, 2025 – May new-vehicle sales, when reported early next week, are expected to show a slower sales level from March and April’s tariff-inspired buying surge, according to the Cox Automotive forecast released today.

The May seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, is forecasted by Cox Automotive to reach approximately 16.0 million, up slightly from last May’s 15.8 million level. However, this represents a significant decline from March’s 17.8 million and April’s 17.3 million pace. Sales volume in May is expected to rise 3.2% from last year and 2.5% from last month. This month’s gains, however, are overstated because May has one more selling day than last year or last month.

“The vehicle market has been particularly strong since new tariff announcements in March, as many vehicle shoppers who were considering buying this year decided to pull ahead their purchase, before higher prices hit the market,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. “However, much of that pull-ahead demand has now been satiated, so consumer demand is expected to fall this month.”

According to Cox Automotive’s vAuto Live Market View, strong vehicle sales in March and April led to tighter inventory levels. New-vehicle inventory at the start of May totaled 2.49 million units on U.S. dealer lots, down 7.4% from the start of April and lower by 10.5% from a year ago. Days’ supply was 66 at the beginning of May, down six days from the previous measure at the start of April.

“Available inventory on dealer lots has declined significantly over recent weeks,” noted Chesbrough. “Finding the right vehicle will be more challenging for shoppers. Additionally, prices will be high as existing inventory becomes less available and more valuable due to tariffs on incoming replacement supply. As more tariffed products replace existing inventory over the summer, prices are expected to be pushed higher, leading to slower sales in the coming months.” 

These concerns are echoed in the Q2 Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index, released last week. The quarterly survey, conducted in late April and early May, revealed that dealers are increasingly wary of future market conditions. While many acknowledged the short-term lift in sales from tariff-driven urgency, the broader sentiment reflected anxiety about a cooling market and the long-term impact of trade policies. As expected, newly implemented tariffs by the Trump administration were a dominant theme in dealer responses, reinforcing the forecast of a cooling market in the months ahead.

May 2025 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and FleetNet America®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $22 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.

Media Contacts:
Mark Schirmer
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mark.schirmer@coxautoinc.com

Dara Hailes
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dara.hailes@coxautoinc.com