Residential construction trends in September were mixed, but single-family housing activity is clearly declining. Existing home sales fell in September for the eighth straight month. More declines can be expected as demand wanes and supply remains very limited, unlike the 2008 downturn. Initial jobless claims declined in the latest week, and jobless claims overall remain … Continued
Financial markets had a roller coaster ride last week, ending the week lower due to stronger-than-expected inflation data and consumer sentiment data indicating rising inflation expectations. Both suggest the Fed will raise rates as much as planned in November and December and possibly more. The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report indicated headline inflation … Continued
Last week, we reviewed our sales forecasts for the third quarter of 2022 and offered our perspective on the factors that continue to present a bumpy road for the auto industry. A replay of that presentation is posted in the Cox Automotive Newsroom. This week, we are beginning to see more clearly the September data and, … Continued
September ended with negative mojo. Damage from Hurricane Ian is just now being assessed in Florida and South Carolina. Economic indicators were mixed. The final estimates for second-quarter economic growth as measured by GDP left the 0.6% decline unchanged, but consumer spending was revised up and was stronger than expected as inflation accelerated in the … Continued
The Fed raised the target for the Federal Funds Rate by three-quarters of a percentage point today, making another aggressive move to, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggests, induce “pain in the economy” as the cost of reducing inflation. The biggest news was not today’s increase, but the plans for where rates go from here. … Continued
As I noted after their July meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee has moved the target rate more in the past two months than at any point since 1981, and they are not done yet. The Fed’s aggressive stance on tackling inflation has resulted in increased borrowing rates that will likely move to 3.5% or … Continued
As widely expected, the Fed raised the target for the Federal Funds Rate by three-quarters of a percentage point today as it remains steadfast in its goal to rein in inflation. Combined with the increase made in June, the Fed has now moved the target rate more in two months than at any point since … Continued
Earlier this month, during our quarterly Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) conference call, there were a significant number of questions related to the health of the U.S. economy, inflation, and the impact used-vehicle prices are having on inflation. These are all important topics that are worth addressing. First, as I noted during the call, … Continued
The job market continues to be one of the strongest parts of the economy and is showing no signs of new stress. Meantime, the housing market is suffering the most from the dramatic increase in mortgage rates. Total new home sales are down from a year ago, while mortgage rates rose more than 2.5 percentage … Continued
Retail sales in May declined more than expected, and inflation pressures led to continued shifts in the pattern of spending. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales were down compared with a year ago, but spending remains quite robust on a nominal basis. Consumers are spending more on gas and groceries but less on cars, electronics, appliances … Continued
