Updated May 5, 2026 – April new-vehicle sales finished lower compared to last year, a result that was widely expected. The April sales pace is now estimated at 15.9 million, slightly below the 16.1 million forecast Cox Automotive issued prior to the sales close. Nearly all major automakers delivered lower year-over-year volume in April. Total sales volume is now estimated at 1.36 million units, below our forecast of 1.38 million.
Our team had expected lower volume compared to April 2025. Last year, the market was benefiting from a tailwind that pushed the April sales pace above 17 million SAAR for the second consecutive month. Headwinds are increasing now, despite healthy tax refunds putting money back into the economy. High fuel prices are hitting household budgets and weighing on consumer sentiment. With inflation elevated, broader economic uncertainty increasing and new-vehicle prices climbing, some would-be buyers are likely moving to the sidelines.
Notably, with fuel prices elevated and nearing a national average of $4.50 per gallon, EV and hybrid shopping traffic on Cox Automotive’s Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book sites remains elevated compared to a Q4 baseline, though generally within a normal range.
If gas prices remain elevated, tailwinds will increase for makers of fuel-efficient electrified vehicles, particularly Toyota and Honda. At the same time, higher energy costs are an undeniable drag on the overall market and consumer sentiment. Ford recently announced an “employee pricing for all” plan to help keep sales moving. Other automakers will likely follow.
ATLANTA, April 24, 2026 – Despite economic uncertainty and weak consumer sentiment, April’s new-vehicle sales are more likely to show spring flowers, not seasonal showers. Cox Automotive is expecting the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of new-vehicle sales in April to finish near 16.1 million, down slightly from March’s 16.3 million level. Sales volume is expected to fall 1.9% from last month.
The sales pace this month is anticipated to be notably lower than last April’s tariff‑lifted 17.1 million rate but has held up better than anticipated despite the ongoing war in the Middle East, elevated fuel prices, and broader economic volatility. Sales volume in April is forecasted to drop 5.4% from last year. There are 26 selling days this April, the same as last year but one more than last month.
April is expected to mark the third straight month of annual sales declines, as vehicle demand continues to be shaped by competing headwinds and tailwinds. While fuel prices have risen significantly and signs of inflation have returned, strong tax refunds have added needed stimulus to the economy and the U.S. stock market has also returned to record levels.
Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough: “April sales appear to be holding up against a lot of uncertainty in the economy. Surging gas prices and historically low consumer confidence haven’t crashed the vehicle market. Sales in April, as in March, were expected to decline from last year’s temporarily high levels, but they haven’t fallen as much as initially expected, thanks in part to strong tax refunds and healthy equity markets.”
April 2026 New-Vehicles Sales Forecast
About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and Cox Fleet®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $23 billion in annual revenue. Cox Automotive has been included on Glassdoor’s Best Companies in Tech & AI 2026 and Best Place to Work in 2026 lists. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.
Media Contacts:
Mark Schirmer
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mark.schirmer@coxautoinc.com
