Updated, Sept. 2, 2026 – Early estimates suggest the August new-vehicle sales came in at 16.8 million, above our SAAR forecast of 16.3 million. Total volume likely declined approximately 5.8% year over year to 1.38 million units, better than the expected 8.5% decline outlined below. Year-to-date sales are now running at a 16.1 million pace, modestly above the current Cox Automotive forecast of 15.9 million. All things considered, the August result suggests the U.S. auto market — by volume at least — continues to perform better than expected.
Retail demand remains healthy, supported primarily by affluent households that are less affected by the pressures of sustained inflation. Strong results from many Asian brands helped offset sales declines elsewhere, and many brands reported continued demand for hybrid vehicles. Fleet volume, according to early reports from Bobit, was mostly flat year over year, a good result in a down month. Fleet share increased to 15.5% from 15% in August 2025.
August new-vehicle sales volume reminds us that the U.S. auto market remains fundamentally healthy. With a SAAR of 16.8 million, the August new-vehicle sales pace was the strongest so far in 2026 and marks six consecutive months above 16 million — the longest streak since the start of the pandemic in March 2020. The latest results suggest a modest upward revision to our outlook may be warranted. Our Q3 U.S. Auto Market Forecast will be released on Sept. 24. To receive a reminder and access to the report when it is published, visit: https://www.coxautoinc.com/insights/q3-2026-cox-automotive-sales-forecast-update/
ATLANTA, Aug. 25, 2026 – August new-vehicle sales are expected to finish on a similar pace as last month, revealing a market that continues to shrug off economic uncertainty. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales, or SAAR, is expected to finish near 16.3 million. This is the same pace as last month and is down slightly from last year’s 16.5 million level.
According to Cox Automotive’s forecast released today, new-vehicle sales volume is expected to fall to 1.35 million, down 8.5% from last year. However, the SAAR is expected to remain mostly unchanged, reflecting calendar-related adjustments. August has 26 selling days this year, one fewer than last year, and Labor Day falls in September this year, moving one of the industry’s biggest sales weekends out of the August reporting period. In 2025, the Labor Day weekend sales were included in August’s results.
“August new-vehicle sales continue to hold up well despite significant economic uncertainty and ongoing trade disputes dominating many news headlines,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. “High gas prices, interest rates that are trending higher, and historically low consumer confidence have not discouraged new-vehicle buyers from making a major purchase as much as might be expected. The current market continues to remind us that new-vehicle buyers today are more affluent, with excellent credit or cash reserves, and may not be as impacted by inflationary pressures as other consumers. If the economy and stock market can remain on a growing but volatile path, new-vehicle sales will likely continue to follow.”
August 2026 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
Third Quarter Sales Forecast Update
On Thursday, Sept. 24, at 11 a.m. EDT, Cox Automotive will release its Q3 Sales Forecast Update, featuring expert commentary, market forecasts and analysis of new, used and electric vehicle trends. Visit the Cox Automotive Insights hub for details and related market analysis. Sign up to be notified by email when the Q3 Sales Forecast Update is released.
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