Updated, June 4, 2026: Initial indications suggest the new-vehicle sales pace in May was near 16.1 million, aligned with the Cox Automotive forecast, as outlined below. The sales pace in May was higher year over year for the first time in 2026. Year to date, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of sales is now tracking near 15.7 million, below the 16.4 million pace in the same period one year ago.
Generally speaking, while 2025 was outperforming Cox Automotive expectations by the end of May, new-vehicle sales this year have been challenged, first by harsh winter weather in January and February and, more recently, higher fuel prices and growing inflation pressures. Consumer sentiment is trending lower, impacting sales as well. As we recently noted, the trend lines on income, savings, and confidence are all pointing in the same direction – and it’s not a good one.
All things considered, the May new-vehicle result was a positive sign, especially in light of the ongoing war in the Middle East and elevated energy prices. New record highs in the equity markets – the positive impact of the wealth effect on affluent household – is likely the most important tailwind for the new-vehicle market at this point, and a fragile one at that. Even with the positive result in May, the new-vehicle market is currently running below the Cox Automotive full-year forecast of 15.8 million. Updates to the forecast will be provided on Wednesday, June 24, during the annual Cox Automotive Mid-Year Review program. RSVP here.
ATLANTA, May 27, 2026 – New-vehicle sales in May are expected to show a market that remains relatively stable in the face of economic uncertainty and an ongoing war in the Middle East. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of sales is forecast by Cox Automotive to finish near 16.1 million. The expected sales pace is an improvement over last May’s 15.6 million level and a gain from last month’s 15.9 million pace.
New-vehicle sales volume in May is expected to be mostly flat from year-ago levels, increasing a modest 0.1%, but rising 7% over last month. There are 26 selling days this month, which is the same as last month, but one less than last year.
The market is being shaped by competing factors right now, and the forecast calls for the vehicle sales pace to remain in the high-15 million to low-16 million range this month, an improvement from earlier in the year and a pace similar to much of 2025. Although fuel prices are sharply higher and consumer sentiment is at historic lows, the stock market has returned to record highs, and the auto market is likely still benefitting from this year’s larger tax refunds and tax benefits.
“May sales appear to be holding up despite significant economic uncertainty,” Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough noted. “New-vehicle buyers today are more affluent than ever, so they may not be as impacted by inflationary pressures as much as other consumers who are more acutely feeling the sharply higher fuel costs. If the economy and stock market can remain on this growing but volatile path, new-vehicle sales will likely follow. However, those are two large necessities during extremely volatile times.”
About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first- and third-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and Cox Fleet®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $23 billion in annual revenue. Cox Automotive has been included on Glassdoor’s Best Companies in Tech & AI 2026 and Best Place to Work in 2026 lists. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.
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