Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: April 29

Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem.

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Report Summary – April 29, 2025

Key Highlights:

• Total consumer spending showed the strongest year-over-year growth since early January 2025.
• New retail vehicle sales have risen sharply, while used-vehicle sales show signs of stalling at a high weekly rate.
• Average auto loan rates moved lower in March and continued to decline in April.

Consumer Spending Growth

Consumer spending has accelerated in April, showing robust year-over-year growth.

• Total consumer spending showed the strongest year-over-year growth since early January 2025.
• Data from Bloomberg indicates that consumer spending has been on an upward trend, reflecting increased economic activity.

Consumer Sentiment

Consumer sentiment has declined at the start of 2025, reflecting concerns about economic conditions.

• The Index of Consumer Sentiment declined 1.7% in February, 3.9% in March, and is down 3.0% so far in April.
• This decline is attributed to concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty.

Jobless Claims

Continuing claims for unemployment benefits have decreased, indicating some improvement in the labor market.

• Continuing claims dropped to 1.84 million nationally.
• This decrease suggests that fewer people are remaining on traditional unemployment compensation.

Retail Vehicle Sales

New retail vehicle sales have increased significantly, while used-vehicle sales show signs of stalling.

• Sales trends for new vehicles continue to increase weekly.
• Used vehicle sales, while still high, are showing signs of stalling at a high weekly rate.

Auto Loan Rates

Average auto loan rates have moved lower, providing some relief to consumers.

• Auto rates moved higher to start 2025 but declined in March and so far in April to 9.38% for new and 14.22% for used.
• This decline in rates is beneficial for consumers looking to finance their vehicle purchases.

Vehicle Supply

New- and used-vehicle supply has declined and remains lower compared to 2024.

• New supply has continued to fall in recent weeks.
• Used supply remains much tighter than in recent years.

Used-Vehicle Prices

Used-vehicle prices have shown mixed trends, with retail prices rising slightly and wholesale prices declining.

• The average model year 2022 price for retail rose 0.1%, while wholesale prices declined 0.1% for the week.
• This divergence in price trends reflects varying market dynamics for retail and wholesale vehicles.

Tax Refund Season

Tax refunds are up over last year, providing a boost to consumer spending.

• The total number of refunds is flat compared to 2024, but the average refund is higher by 3% year over year.
• This increase in refunds supports consumer spending and economic activity.

Cox Automotive Leading Indicators

• Leads are down year over year so far in April on Autotrader but are up strongly on Kelley Blue Book, and leads are up for the month compared to March on Kelley Blue Book but down on Autotrader.
• Unique leads per dealer for new and used vehicles are up year over year so far in April on websites hosted by Dealer.com, and new leads are up for the month compared to March while used leads are down.
• Unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack were up 3% year over year last week, with the trend in applications per dealer slowing week over week in new and used.
• Service trends on Xtime relative to last year declined in the week ending April 19, as completed appointments were down 1.6% year over year.