Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: March 18

Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem.

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Report Summary – March 18, 2025

Key Highlights

• Consumer spending showed the strongest year-over-year growth in the final week of 2024 and early January 2025.
• Retail vehicle sales have risen every week for five consecutive weeks in March.
• Average auto loan rates are higher year over year, with new auto loans at 9.68% and used auto loans at 14.72%.

Consumer Spending

Consumer spending exhibited the strongest year-over-year growth in the final week of 2024 and early January 2025.

• Total consumer spending showed positive growth despite economic challenges.
• The Index of Consumer Sentiment declined by 0.1% in January, 1.7% in February, and 1.9% in March.

Retail Vehicle Sales

Retail vehicle sales have been on the rise, with increases observed every week for five consecutive weeks in March.

• Both new and used retail sales have shown consistent growth.
• The sales pace for new and used vehicles has been strong, driven by consumer demand.

Auto Loan Rates

Average auto loan rates have increased year over year, impacting both new and used vehicle financing.

• New auto loan rates are currently at 9.68%, while used auto loan rates are at 14.72%.
• Low-interest rate deals have declined since the end of 2024 and show little change in March.

New -and Used-Vehicle Supply

The supply of new and used vehicles has been declining in March, reflecting tighter inventory levels.

• New vehicle supply has fallen below 2024 levels.
• Used vehicle supply remains tight, with days’ supply down nearly three days compared to 2019 levels.

Used-Vehicle Prices

Used vehicle prices are diverging, with retail prices falling slightly while wholesale prices increase.

• The average retail price for model year 2022 vehicles fell by 0.1% last week.
• Wholesale prices for used vehicles have been on the rise.

Tax Refund Season

Tax refunds have increased compared to last year, providing a boost to consumer spending.

• The total number of refunds is up by 1% compared to 2024.
• The average refund amount is higher by 6% year over year.

Cox Automotive Leading Indicators

Leading indicators from Cox Automotive show positive trends in consumer engagement and service activities.

• Leads: Leads are up year over year in March so far on Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book, and leads are up for the month compared to February on both sites.
• Dealer Metrics: Unique leads per dealer for new and used vehicles are down year over year so far in March on websites hosted by Dealer.com, but new and used leads are up for the month compared to February. Unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack were up 9% year over year last week with the trend in applications per dealer declining slightly week over week.
• Service Trends: Service trends on Xtime relative to last year improved in the week ending March 8, as completed appointments were up 1% year over year.