Cox Automotive Forecast: New-Vehicle Sales Pace Expected to Rebound After June Disruptions

Update, August 2, 2024 – New-vehicle sales in July, as forecast last week, mostly rebounded from a temporary sales slowdown driven largely by a widespread dealer software outage in the second half of June.  While the June sales pace has been revised lower, to a surprisingly slow 15.2 million, the market seemingly got back on track in July with sales volume near 1.27 million, slightly lower than the 1.29 million in the Cox Automotive July forecast. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of sales for July is being initially estimated at 15.8 million, lower than our forecast of 16.0 million. Indications are the fleet market was soft in July, below expectations, and a drag on the overall market sales pace.  

As noted in our forecast, the new-vehicle market continues to wait for a breakout moment. Despite real wage and income gains, low unemployment, and declining inflation, the U.S. auto market continues to perform below potential. Inventory levels are vastly improved compared to a year ago and more incentive spending is flowing into the market. Still, sales in July were consistent to what we’ve seen for about a year now: a pace in the neighborhood of 15.7 million. New-vehicle sales this year will beat 2023. Our team is forecasting total sales near 15.7 million, up from 15.3 million last year, but the total market will remain far below the average volume of 17.2 million tallied in the years from 2015 to 2019, when loan rates were lower and credit easier to obtain. 

Our team will have a full analysis of sales in the coming days, with inventory and pricing data, but we are already expecting to see further strength in smaller, more affordable vehicles. Through the first half of 2024, when overall market volume was higher by 2.3%, the Subcompact SUVs segment outperformed, up more than 20% year over year. Compact SUVs were up 12% in that same timeframe while the Compact Car segment was up nearly 18% year over year. In today’s environment, affordability matters.

ATLANTA, July 25, 2024 – The Cox Automotive forecast released today indicates that U.S. July new-vehicle sales will show some recovery from the widespread software outage that impacted sales and reporting last month. In July, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, is expected to rise to 16.0 million, an upward rebound from last month’s surprisingly low 15.3 million level.

Last month, the sales pace had been forecast to finish much higher, but disruptions in dealership point-of-sale software programs at the end of June likely prevented some sales from being fully completed and reported. Those sales will likely be captured in this month’s final tallies and, together with seasonal adjustments, will help push the pace well above the market’s 15.5 million average over the last 18 months.

Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, noted: “July new-vehicle sales are expected to finish within the range of 15-16 million, as it has consistently over the last year. However, July sales will likely include some sales that were delayed from June, which should push the market toward the upper end of the sales range. How much is unknown, but tens of thousands of vehicles may have been affected. Fleet sales are also unknown but will be an important factor in July’s result. Fleet sales can lift or suppress the monthly sales pace, and recent trends suggest less activity from this channel.”

According to Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book sales estimates, July sales volume is expected to fall to 1.29 million, down 1.3% from last year and down 3% from last month. Through the first half of 2024, monthly new-vehicle sales volume has averaged 1.31 million units. Total new-vehicle sales for calendar year 2024 are forecast by Cox Automotive to reach 15.7 million, an increase from 2023 and the best year since 2019.

July 2024 U.S. New-Vehicle Sales Forecast

All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate. July 2024 has 25 selling days, the same as last year but one less than last month.

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and FleetNet America®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $22 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.

Media Contacts:
Mark Schirmer
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Dara Hailes
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