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Smoke on Cars
Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke shares his insights on macroeconomic trends, business cycles, demand and the economic factors influencing the automotive industry today.
All
Smoke on Cars
Commentary & Voices
Data Point
Economy & Trends
CAMIO
4 min read
Auto Market Weekly Summary
08/08/2022
The July employment report marked a milestone in the pandemic recovery, indicating no sign of a recession. Job growth in July accelerated to 528,000 jobs created. Unemployment fell to 3.5%, the same as it was in February 2020, though the number of jobs on payrolls is now higher than it was in February 2020. Labor force participation declined slightly, and growth in average hourly earnings year-over-year…
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Market Insights
Smoke on Cars
6 min read
Auto Loan Defaults Are Increasing, But We Are Not Heading Into A Repo Crisis
08/03/2022
As I noted after their July meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee has moved the target rate more in the past two months than at any point since 1981, and they are not done yet. The Fed’s aggressive stance on tackling inflation has resulted in increased borrowing rates that will likely move to 3.5% or higher by year-end. The higher rates are designed to cool the…
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Market Insights
Smoke on Cars
Economy & Trends
5 min read
Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: August 2nd
08/02/2022
The video below is part of a biweekly Auto Market Report series focusing on data and insights that provide a holistic view of the auto industry. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. Download this week’s presentation.
Read Article
Market Insights
Smoke on Cars
5 min read
Auto Market Weekly Summary
08/01/2022
Real GDP declined again in the second quarter, as falling inventory accumulation and lower residential construction spending decreased private investment. Even so, consumer spending did grow over the first quarter. We have now seen two negative quarters in a row on real GDP, but the technical declines do not mean the U.S. is in a recession. Consumer spending growth accelerated in June, and even with inflation…
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Market Insights
Smoke on Cars
5 min read
July Delivers Higher Auto Rates with the Fed Promising More Ahead
07/27/2022
As widely expected, the Fed raised the target for the Federal Funds Rate by three-quarters of a percentage point today as it remains steadfast in its goal to rein in inflation. Combined with the increase made in June, the Fed has now moved the target rate more in two months than at any point since 1981, and they are not done yet. The Fed has now…
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Market Insights
Smoke on Cars
Economy & Trends
4 min read
Auto Market Weekly Summary
07/25/2022
The job market is starting to show signs of cooling as new initial claims have risen for seven straight weeks and are now at a level higher than they were before the pandemic began. However, continuing claims continue to remain below pre-pandemic levels. The housing market has suffered the most from the dramatic increase in mortgage rates experienced so far this year. Existing home sales declined…
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Market Insights
Smoke on Cars
7 min read
The Used-Vehicle Market Is Beginning To Feel Normal Again, and That Is Good News for the Industry.
07/21/2022
Earlier this month, during our quarterly Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) conference call, there were a significant number of questions related to the health of the U.S. economy, inflation, and the impact used-vehicle prices are having on inflation. These are all important topics that are worth addressing. First, as I noted during the call, the U.S. economy has faced many headwinds so far in 2022,…
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used-vehicle market
Market Insights
Smoke on Cars
Economy & Trends
5 min read
Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: July 19
07/19/2022
The video below is part of a biweekly Auto Market Report series focusing on data and insights that provide a holistic view of the auto industry. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. Download this week’s presentation.
Read Article
Market Insights
Smoke on Cars
5 min read
Auto Market Weekly Summary
07/18/2022
Inflation accelerated in June, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The year-over-year inflation rate hit 9.1%, the highest since November 1981. Key categories that consume a sizable portion of consumer budgets, such as food, rent and gasoline, saw significant gains. Vehicle prices also added to June’s inflation reading, although Cox Automotive data covering used prices indicated declining values in June. Retail sales in June increased…
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Market Insights
Smoke on Cars
5 min read
Auto Market Weekly Summary
07/11/2022
The June employment report showed a slowing in job growth, but it exceeded expectations at 372,000 jobs created, which was a historically healthy number of jobs created. The unemployment rate was also unchanged at 3.6%. Labor force participation declined slightly, and growth in average hourly earnings year over year slowed. The underemployment rate fell to a 52-year low. The strength of the job market casts doubt…
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Market Insights
Smoke on Cars
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