Market Insights and Outlook - Cox Automotive Inc.

Smoke on Cars Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke shares his insights on macroeconomic trends, business cycles, demand and the economic factors influencing the automotive industry today.

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Auto Market Weekly Summary 01/21/2020 Two full weeks into January, most of the latest data reflects key trends in December. Inflation eats into wages: Inflation increased modestly in December, primarily from higher energy prices and from big increases in health care insurance. Average weekly earnings did not see real growth for the first time in 32 months as a result of weaker wage growth, fewer hours worked, and higher inflation. Spending… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends

Auto Market Weekly Summary 01/13/2020 Job growth is slowing, wage gains are not accelerating, and consumers are pulling back on spending as evidenced by disappointing December car sales. Job creation slows: December saw job creation slow down relative to the much bigger gain in November. Even with the smaller gain, both the headline and the underemployment rates are now at 50-year lows. The slack in the labor market is disappearing. Slower job… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends

Auto Market Weekly Summary 01/06/2020 We ended 2019 with mostly positive data. Home sales continue to be strong as both new home sales and pending home sales increased in November. But news starting 2020 has been less so. Wary consumers: Consumer confidence failed to see improvement in December, but it isn’t declining either. The main concern is that consumers do not feel as good about the future as they do about… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends

Auto Market Weekly Summary 12/23/2019 Economic growth is slowing, but the consumer, responsible for 90% of this year’s growth, continues to spend, and November saw an upward trend in spending fueled by an upward trend in income growth. Inflation remains contained and well below the Fed’s target, which reinforces that rate policy is likely to remain stable. Housing positive: Housing has been one of the best upward trends for 2019, but… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars

What to Expect in Tax Season 2020 12/17/2019 Tax refunds drive the demand that makes the spring season the most important season of the year for the used-vehicle market. In 2020, we expect the market to follow the same weekly pattern as the 2018 and 2019 markets. Week 9 is likely to see a 20-30% jump in used retail sales. The tax refund buying season typically lasts 6-7 weeks. Over that period, the average… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars

Auto Market Weekly Summary 12/16/2019 While we saw progress on trade agreements, new economic data last week highlight concerns about the bedrock of the U.S. economy –the consumer. Trade agreements closer: Last week saw progress on trade uncertainty as a supplementary “protocol” was agreed to by the U.S., Mexico and Canada to get the changes Democrats wanted to see in the USMCA. The House is expected to formally vote and approve the… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends

Fed Leaves Short-Term Rate Unchanged 12/11/2019 The Fed officially left short-term rate policy unchanged at the conclusion of their December meeting today, which was the last meeting in 2019. After three rate cuts this year, the Fed seems set on a steady course in 2020 barring a major change in the economy. The Fed’s official statement acknowledged that economic growth is increasing at a moderate rate with solid job gains, and as… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends

Auto Market Weekly Summary 12/09/2019 The first week of December delivered strong readings related to the job market, consumer sentiment and retail vehicle sales. Jobs, jobs, jobs: November saw the second-best number of jobs created for the year and dramatically surprised to the upside. The unemployment rate is back down to 3.5%, which is a 50-year low. Wage gains have been the strongest and most consistent in a decade. Consumers are confident:… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars

Auto Market Weekly Summary 11/25/2019 The past week failed to deliver clarity on a number of topics that we had been waiting for while we got good news on housing and concerning news on credit. Global trade uncertainty: The week did not deliver clarity on a Phase 1 trade deal with China or official movement or postponement of new tariffs on autos and parts from Japan or Europe. Likewise, we went… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars

Auto Market Weekly Summary 11/18/2019 The inflation trend is mixed. Depending on the metric and comparison period, it is possible to say inflation is stable, accelerating or decelerating. Using the Consumer Price Index, aggregate inflation is below the Fed’s target but accelerating as energy, food, health care, and transportation are getting more expensive. Core inflation, which ignores volatile food and energy prices, is running higher than the Fed’s target but trended lower… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars

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