Market Insights and Outlook - Cox Automotive Inc.

Smoke on Cars Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke shares his insights on macroeconomic trends, business cycles, demand and the economic factors influencing the automotive industry today.

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Auto Market Weekly Summary 10/14/2019 The stock market snapped a three-week losing streak thanks to a bounce Friday related to the announcement of a new “skinny (trade) deal” between the U.S. and China that found common ground on a narrow set of terms and postponed an additional hike in U.S. tariffs set to happen this week. Inflation benign: The economic data last week was also fairly positive with benign inflation affirming… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars

Auto Market Weekly Summary 10/07/2019 The pace of job creation continues to be weaker than last year, but enough jobs are being created to push the unemployment rate lower. However, not all sectors are strong, as manufacturing is now shedding jobs, and manufacturing data suggest that losses will continue. The mix of job creation and losses may be one of the factors behind decelerating earnings growth. Manufacturing reflects slowing global growth: Several indicators covering… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars

Auto Market Weekly Summary 09/30/2019 Economic growth slowed in the second quarter and is likely to be much slower in the back half of the year compared with the first half of the year. Tame inflation: Inflation has been tame, mainly as a result of lower prices for food and energy, but now some of the consumer surplus provided by lower gas prices has started to diminish. Consumer spending slows: Consumers… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends

Auto Market Weekly Summary 09/23/2019 The stock market failed to make it four straight weeks of gains as the UAW strike at GM, turmoil in the Middle East, floods in Texas, and global economic weakness collectively dampened moods. The Fed also made news every day, and, when the Fed has to take action, it’s not usually because things are looking good. Fed rates: The Fed lowered official short-term policy rates for… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends

Fed Rate Cut Likely Won’t Influence Auto Loan Rates 09/18/2019 As was widely expected, the Fed officially cut the short-term rate policy by a quarter point, so their rates are back to the range we had last August before the September 2018 increase. Citing global developments and muted inflation pressures, the Fed decided to cut rates even though there was dissension in the vote with two members favoring no cut and one favoring a half a… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends

Higher Fuel Prices Could End Low Inflation 09/17/2019 Brent crude futures increased 15% yesterday, which was one of the largest single-day jumps in history. The decline in Saudi production due to the Saturday attack on one of the world's largest oil processing facilities amounts to an estimated 5% of the world’s oil supply. In the U.S., gas prices increased yesterday, but only $0.03 or 1.1% according to AAA’s daily national gauge of regular unleaded. Yesterday’s average… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends

Auto Market Weekly Summary 09/16/2019 The stock market kept its winning streak going for a third straight week, and again it was mainly related to rising hopes of progress with U.S.-China trade talks. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank beat the U.S. Fed to the rate-reduction punch by lowering its official rate by 10 basis point in the EU - it is now down to a negative 0.5% - and re-starting quantitative easing in Europe.… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends

Auto Market Weekly Summary 09/09/2019 The stock market kept its winning streak alive with gains for a second week, mainly as a result of optimism about progress with U.S.-China trade talks since a meeting is being planned to continue negotiations in October. The market seemed to shrug off the actual implementation of new tariffs by both the U.S. and China on Sept.1. Real progress this year is doubtful. Hurricane Dorian produced… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars

Auto Market Weekly Summary 09/03/2019 Second quarter real growth in GDP was revised down to 2% from the 2.1% originally reported, but consumer spending was revised higher. Consumer spending: The consumer was also alive and well and spending in July before trade-induced market anxieties and yield curve inversions took center stage in August. New and existing home sales were stronger in June and July, but pending home sales dipped again in July.Recession… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars

Hurricane Dorian: Early Look at Potential Impact on Vehicles 08/30/2019 UPDATE (09/03/19): After reaching Category 5 strength over the weekend and severely impacting parts of the Bahamas, forecasts now predict Hurricane Dorian will steer in a more northern direction and not directly hit Florida. By staying off-shore and following the coastline, Hurricane Dorian is not expected to impact the auto industry when it comes to damages in Florida, but because of the uncertainty throughout the weekend on… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars

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