Market Insights and Outlook - Cox Automotive Inc.

Smoke on Cars Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke shares his insights on macroeconomic trends, business cycles, demand and the economic factors influencing the automotive industry today. See Insights ›

Commentary & Voices Our team of analysts and experts share their reactions, insights and unique perspectives on the behaviors, data and industry moves that are affecting the broader automotive business. See Insights ›

Data Point The automotive industry is a data-driven business. These are the data points that our team of experts and analysts find most interesting, offered with insights to explain why it matters and why you should know. See Insights ›

Economy & Trends Dynamic economic factors and market trends continually influence our industry, and Cox Automotive’s economists and analysts provide data analysis, forecasts and reports to enhance the understanding of how these factors affect the automotive marketplace. See Insights ›

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Auto Market Weekly Summary 04/22/2019 Contrasts are the theme. Improving retail sales contrasts with residential construction weakness. Economic growth is decelerating but could pick up if consumers start spending again. Consumer credit is supportive of that spending, but rising defaults on credit cards and higher delinquency on subprime auto loans could spell trouble. Meantime, trade concerns cast a shadow over the auto market and the economy. Retail sales reverse: Retail sales… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars

Spring Bounce in Used Car Demand and Values Ignores Lower Tax Refunds 04/15/2019 We now know from the IRS statistics that tax refunds have indeed been lower this year as we had feared would be the case. Total refunds are down 1.5% in number and down 2.6% in dollar amount through April 5. The decline amounts to $6 billion less being pumped into consumers’ pockets. The average refund is now down by 1.1% year-over-year. However, we have also seen… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars

Auto Market Weekly Summary 04/15/2019 Despite tame inflation, Fed patience with raising interest rates, wage gains and other positive economic signs, consumers are increasingly nervous, not about today, but about the future. Consumer sentiment dips: The initial reading on Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan fell in March, and the April initial reading was also below forecast. Consumers are becoming more nervous about the economy slowing. Such fears will likely… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends

Tariffs on ‘Mexican cars’ are just taxes on American consumers 04/09/2019 The Hill, By Jonathan Smoke, April 9, 2019 -- Mexico is arguably our most important trading partner for the automotive market, both for fully-assembled vehicles and, even more importantly, for parts to go into vehicles assembled in the U.S. Of new vehicles sold in the U.S. in 2018, 15 percent were assembled in Mexico. Japan is the second-largest partner at 10 percent. But what is uniquely challenging… Read Article

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The Importance of Mexico to the U.S. Auto Market 04/08/2019 Mexico is arguably the most important U.S. trading partner for the automotive market, both for fully-assembled vehicles and, even more importantly, for parts that go into vehicles assembled in the U.S. Of new vehicles sold in the U.S. in 2018, 53% were assembled in the U.S. However, 15% were assembled in Mexico. Japan is the second largest partner at 10%, followed by Canada. The rest of… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars

Auto Market Weekly Summary 04/08/2019 Fears of an economic slowdown eased a bit thanks to a strong job growth report and better-than-expected new vehicle sales. Job growth rebounds: Job creation rebounded in March from anemic growth in February, relieving fears of a more dramatic slowdown coming in consumer spending. Average monthly job creation so far in 2019 is 180,000 jobs, more than 40k less than last year, but still solid growth.… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends

Auto Market Weekly Summary 04/01/2019 Economic growth at the end of last year was much weaker than originally estimated. The economy decelerated to real GDP growth of 2.2%, setting up the first quarter to be much weaker as well. Mixed bag for confidence: Consumer confidence data are sending mixed signals. Confidence was down in March, but sentiment was up. Part of what may be happening is a clear split in sentiment… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends

Replay of Cox Automotive Q1 Auto Sales Call Available 04/01/2019 A replay of the Cox Automotive Q1 Auto Sales Call hosted by Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke is available below. Along with Smoke, Cox Automotive Executive Analyst Karl Brauer and Zo Rahim, manager of economics and industry insights for Cox Automotive, presented a comprehensive look at the auto market in Q1 2019, including their perspectives on how the quarter will end. During the call, Jonathan and… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars Commentary & Voices

Auto Market Weekly Summary 03/25/2019 Economic growth slowed dramatically at the end of 2018 and remained slower to start the year. The Fed has recognized slowing growth as well as heightened risks and is now unlikely to increase short term rates this year. Yield curve inverts: Clear signs of economic weakness in Asia and Europe have pushed long-term bond yields lower, including more negative rates in those regions. Thanks to the… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends

Auto Market Weekly Summary 03/18/2019 After a slow start to the year, many leading indicators are pointing to a stronger economy this spring. Real wage growth is now stronger than we have seen in two-and-a-half years, thanks to higher wages combined with subdued inflation. Consumer spending rebound: Consumers retreated from spending at the end of last year because of political and economic factors dimming their confidence. With improving sentiment, consumers are… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends