Market Insights and Outlook - Cox Automotive Inc.

Smoke on Cars Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke shares his insights on macroeconomic trends, business cycles, demand and the economic factors influencing the automotive industry today.

4 min read

Auto Market Weekly Summary 08/08/2022 The July employment report marked a milestone in the pandemic recovery, indicating no sign of a recession. Job growth in July accelerated to 528,000 jobs created. Unemployment fell to 3.5%, the same as it was in February 2020, though the number of jobs on payrolls is now higher than it was in February 2020. Labor force participation declined slightly, and growth in average hourly earnings year-over-year… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars

6 min read

Auto Loan Defaults Are Increasing, But We Are Not Heading Into A Repo Crisis 08/03/2022 As I noted after their July meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee has moved the target rate more in the past two months than at any point since 1981, and they are not done yet. The Fed’s aggressive stance on tackling inflation has resulted in increased borrowing rates that will likely move to 3.5% or higher by year-end. The higher rates are designed to cool the… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends

5 min read

Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: August 2nd 08/02/2022 The video below is part of a biweekly Auto Market Report series focusing on data and insights that provide a holistic view of the auto industry. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. Download this week’s presentation. Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars

5 min read

Auto Market Weekly Summary 08/01/2022 Real GDP declined again in the second quarter, as falling inventory accumulation and lower residential construction spending decreased private investment. Even so, consumer spending did grow over the first quarter. We have now seen two negative quarters in a row on real GDP, but the technical declines do not mean the U.S. is in a recession. Consumer spending growth accelerated in June, and even with inflation… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars

5 min read

July Delivers Higher Auto Rates with the Fed Promising More Ahead 07/27/2022 As widely expected, the Fed raised the target for the Federal Funds Rate by three-quarters of a percentage point today as it remains steadfast in its goal to rein in inflation. Combined with the increase made in June, the Fed has now moved the target rate more in two months than at any point since 1981, and they are not done yet. The Fed has now… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends

4 min read

Auto Market Weekly Summary 07/25/2022 The job market is starting to show signs of cooling as new initial claims have risen for seven straight weeks and are now at a level higher than they were before the pandemic began. However, continuing claims continue to remain below pre-pandemic levels. The housing market has suffered the most from the dramatic increase in mortgage rates experienced so far this year. Existing home sales declined… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars

7 min read

The Used-Vehicle Market Is Beginning To Feel Normal Again, and That Is Good News for the Industry. 07/21/2022 Earlier this month, during our quarterly Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) conference call, there were a significant number of questions related to the health of the U.S. economy, inflation, and the impact used-vehicle prices are having on inflation. These are all important topics that are worth addressing. First, as I noted during the call, the U.S. economy has faced many headwinds so far in 2022,… Read Article

used-vehicle market Market Insights Smoke on Cars Economy & Trends

5 min read

Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: July 19 07/19/2022 The video below is part of a biweekly Auto Market Report series focusing on data and insights that provide a holistic view of the auto industry. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. Download this week’s presentation. Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars

5 min read

Auto Market Weekly Summary 07/18/2022 Inflation accelerated in June, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The year-over-year inflation rate hit 9.1%, the highest since November 1981. Key categories that consume a sizable portion of consumer budgets, such as food, rent and gasoline, saw significant gains. Vehicle prices also added to June’s inflation reading, although Cox Automotive data covering used prices indicated declining values in June. Retail sales in June increased… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars

5 min read

Auto Market Weekly Summary 07/11/2022 The June employment report showed a slowing in job growth, but it exceeded expectations at 372,000 jobs created, which was a historically healthy number of jobs created. The unemployment rate was also unchanged at 3.6%. Labor force participation declined slightly, and growth in average hourly earnings year over year slowed. The underemployment rate fell to a 52-year low. The strength of the job market casts doubt… Read Article

Market Insights Smoke on Cars

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