While interest rates and overall debt levels dominated the news last week, economic data was relatively light. Gas prices remained elevated, holding above $4 a gallon and continuing to climb. Concerns about consumer spending also increased, highlighted by Walmart reporting its weakest same-store sales in six years. This edition of the Weekly Market Summary includes updates on new-vehicle affordability, midmonth auction values at Manheim and the latest Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, meeting minutes from July.

This week, attention will turn to the Federal Reserve as officials gather in Jackson Hole for the annual Economic Policy Symposium. We will also digest a slew of economic data, including updates on gross domestic product growth, personal income and spending, and inflation readings, and will be sure to cover them.

Bottom Line Up Front

Bond market volatility took center stage last week, with the 30-year Treasury yield climbing to levels not seen in roughly 20 years before Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stepped in midweek with a modern version of Operation Twist. The Treasury expanded its purchases of long-dated bonds while leaning more heavily on short-term issuance to fund them. The move calmed markets for about a day before yields resumed climbing as investors refocused on the government’s debt load crossing $40 trillion for the first time. The pressure is not isolated to the U.S.; long-term rates climbed across much of the world last week.

In late July, we noted that the Fed’s pullback on forward guidance could push markets to price in a higher risk premium on their own, effectively doing some of the Fed’s tightening work without a rate hike. That dynamic appears to be playing out in real time and is likely a core factor driving rates higher now. It is genuinely uncomfortable to experience, and it will draw even more attention this week as the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium gets underway.

Adding to the strain, another escalation in the Middle East conflict pushed Brent crude toward $94 a barrel on Friday, with gas prices rising to $4.10 nationally. That level squeezes consumers already fighting inflation on multiple fronts, from borrowing costs to the pump.

For the auto market, the picture remains more stable than the macro headlines suggest, at least for now. Wholesale prices have corrected modestly over the past six weeks, though depreciation trends are still running below long-term seasonal averages. New- and used-vehicle retail sales have held steady. Financing costs are only beginning to show the strain: New-vehicle loan rates have started to tick higher, while used-vehicle rates remain steady even as broader benchmarks move up.

This week’s data will offer more clues, though the gross domestic product release still covers the second quarter. Updates on personal income, spending and inflation will provide a more current reading of where consumers stand as Labor Day and the unofficial end of summer approach. The auto industry will keep a close eye on rate volatility and energy prices, but demand signals have not cracked yet.

New-Vehicle Affordability

New-vehicle affordability was steady in July as income growth offset a modest increase in prices, while interest rates changed little, according to the latest Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index. Compared with July 2025, the estimated weeks of income required to buy a new vehicle declined, indicating continued easing in affordability pressures for consumers.

  • In July, the average auto loan rate was unchanged from June at 9.52% and was essentially flat year over year.
  • The Kelley Blue Book average transaction price, or ATP, rose 0.2% month over month, while income rose slightly more, up 0.3%. Compared with last year, ATP was 1.9% higher, while income increased 4.0% over the same period. This suggests income growth is significantly outpacing new-vehicle prices, which have shown muted gains recently.
  • The typical monthly payment in July was $763, a 2.3% increase compared with last year and a 0.2% increase from June.
  • The median number of income weeks required to purchase a new vehicle in July held essentially steady at 35.3 weeks, matching June, and fell from 35.8 weeks last year. This year-over-year decline highlights continued improvement in affordability because consumers are required to allocate a smaller portion of their income to buy a new vehicle compared with a year ago.
Manheim Values

Wholesale values fell more than usual over the past six weeks, correcting some of the strength seen in valuation trends earlier in the year. Even with stronger moves to the downside since July, we are still seeing less depreciation than usual over the year, particularly in older and more affordable vehicle segments.

  • The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, or MUVVI, fell 1.2% in the first half of August compared with the end of July.
  • Nonseasonally adjusted wholesale values declined 0.8% in the first half of August and are now down 0.2% compared with the same time last year.
  • EV values remain higher than other segments, up 5% compared with last August, but the segment gave back some strength over the past couple of weeks as off-lease EV supply continued to grow. EVs accounted for 4.6% of all units in the MUVVI, the highest reading on record.
FOMC Meeting Minutes

The July FOMC minutes revealed a committee that was still holding rates steady but had a widening split rather than unity, as three members dissented in favor of a rate increase. That was a reversal from the hawkish but unanimous hold in June. The 9-3 vote to maintain the target range marked a rate-hike dissent, even as the committee retained June’s closing line: “The Committee will deliver price stability.”

Inflation was trending in a better direction as of the June meeting. However, risks associated with the future path of inflation remain skewed to the upside because sticky prices could prove more persistent than forecast. Some members noted that prices for materials used to build data centers, including chips and steel, had posted larger gains. Those trends are putting upward pressure on some technology-based consumer goods.

Several participants favored a 25-basis-point hike at the July meeting, although only three voted in favor of a rate increase. As of Friday, the futures market was pricing in a 40% possibility of a rate hike by September. By the December meeting, the market put the chance of one 25-basis-point increase at 45%.

The economy expanded at a solid pace, and the labor market remained stable, with AI-related investment keeping both hiring and firing subdued. Workers also continued to see wage growth in average hourly earnings.