ATLANTA, July 27, 2026 – July vehicle sales are expected to show that new-vehicle buyers continue to largely shrug off any inflation or economic concerns. The SAAR, or seasonally adjusted sales rate, is forecast by Cox Automotive to finish near 16.7 million this month, up slightly from June’s 16.5 million sales pace. Sales volume in July is expected to increase 1.2% month over month.
According to the Cox Automotive forecast, the sales pace in July will increase from last year’s 16.6 million result, but the volume will be down slightly. There are 26 selling days this July, the same as last year, but one more than last month. The 16.7 million SAAR forecast indicates the sales pace this month will be the strongest year to date in 2026.
Comparisons to last summer show similar momentum but fueled by different market drivers. In the summer of 2025, new-vehicle sales surged in the wake of the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. That new law helped energize the market with provisions that included the September 30th elimination of electric vehicle subsidies. Many buyers rushed to the market to beat that deadline, shifting sales into higher gear. The new-vehicle market is experiencing similar elevated activity this summer, with pent-up demand and record stock market gains, not policy changes, likely the key drivers.
According to Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, “July sales are holding up despite significant economic uncertainty. Stubbornly high gas prices – with no relief in sight – and historically weak consumer confidence have not discouraged new-vehicle buyers, as might be expected. The market today is being driven by more affluent buyers, so they may be less impacted by inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty. If the economy and stock market can maintain their current growing but volatile path, vehicle sales will likely follow.”
Media Contacts:
Mark Schirmer
734 883 6346
mark.schirmer@coxautoinc.com
